Ending Cold War Nuclear Thinking

By Kimball, Daryl G. | Arms Control Today, March 2012 | Go to article overview

Ending Cold War Nuclear Thinking


Kimball, Daryl G., Arms Control Today


Within his first 100 days in office, President Barack Obama delivered a stirring address in Prague on the steps necessary to move toward a world free of nuclear weapons. On April 5, 2009, he pledged to "put an end to Cold War thinking" by "reduc[ing] the role of nuclear weapons in our national security strategy."

Obama's 2010 "Nuclear Posture Review [NPR] Report" established the broad vision for reducing the role and number of U.S. nuclear weapons. In contrast to the Cold War-era strategy of being prepared to "prevail" in a nuclear war with the Soviets and use nuclear weapons to counter conventional threats, the new strategy clarifies that "the fundamental role of U.S. nuclear forces is to deter nuclear attacks against the U.S. and our allies and partners."

Obama soon will make decisions that could put those words in action. His review of the post-NPR options developed by his national security staff and the Pentagon should lead to a fundamental rewrite of previous presidential guidance on nuclear employment policy, nuclear targeting, and the size and structure of U.S. nuclear forces. Reports indicate the White House is considering options that could open the way for U.S. proposals for "steep cuts" in deployed nuclear weapons.

Changes are in order. The current size of the U.S. arsenal, and Russia's, far exceeds what is necessary to deter nuclear attack. Both sides can and should go much lower.

Even under the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which was negotiated on the basis of George W. Bush-era nuclear targeting plans, the United States and Russia will each still be allowed to deploy 1,550 strategic nuclear weapons on as many as 700 missiles and bombers until 2021 or beyond. Thousands of additional warheads are held in reserve. Unless they adjust their thinking, both countries will spend hundreds of billions of dollars to modernize and maintain similar nuclear force levels for decades to come.

Obama should not settle for marginal adjustments. Given that no other country deploys more than 300 nuclear weapons and that China possesses just 40 to 50 warheads on intercontinentalrange missiles, he should implement a significant reduction of the overall U.S. nuclear stockpile-to 1,000 deployed and nondeployed warheads or fewer-in the coming years. This would still provide more than sufficient firepower to deter nuclear attack by any current or future adversary.

To do so, Obama should eliminate entire target categories from the current nuclear war plan, which now includes a wide range of military forces, nuclear weapons infrastructure, military and national leadership targets, and war-supporting infrastructure, mainly in Russia. …

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