Inflation Dips in Face of Weak Economic Conditions in Canada, World

By Beltrame, Julian | The Canadian Press, September 21, 2012 | Go to article overview

Inflation Dips in Face of Weak Economic Conditions in Canada, World


Beltrame, Julian, The Canadian Press


August inflation rate dips to 1.2 per cent

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OTTAWA - Canada's inflation rate continued to slide in August, dipping one-tenth of a point to 1.2 per cent in one of several signs Friday that the Canadian and global economies are slowing.

Statistics Canada also reported that wholesale prices in Canada fell 0.6 per cent in July, and the World Trade Organization released a new forecast slashing trade growth to a weak 2.5 per cent this year.

The inflation softness was anticipated by economists -- they had expected price growth to remain unchanged at 1.3 per cent -- but the falloff in wholesale sales was three times higher than consensus.

Several analysts called on the Bank of Canada to switch its tightening bias from higher interests rates. Even so, they said the likelihood of bank governor Mark Carney actually making good on his language by hiking borrowing costs in the near future was near zero.

"While slow growth and global economic risks nearly slayed the notion that the Bank of Canada would be hiking rates any time soon, today's inflation report put a nail in the coffin," said CIBC.

The latest numbers, along with previously released data on manufacturing and housing starts, point to another disappointing quarter of growth in the July-September period, said CIBC chief economist Avery Shenfeld.

"We had hoped that because the second quarter had some distortions that held back growth, that we would see a bounce above two per cent in the third," he said.

"It looks like it will be once again below two per cent. Not a disastrous quarter, but a continuing of the very mediocre trend for Canada."

Earlier in the week, TD Bank projected the third quarter could see growth drop to as low as one per cent, from 1.8 in the first two quarters of the year, and half the Bank of Canada's forecast.

Capital Economics analyst David Madani said his reading is that inflation pressures in Canada will weaken in upcoming months, although food prices should start rising in response to crop failures from the summer drought in the U.S.

Given that outlook, the Bank of Canada should drop all pretence that it's looking to withdraw stimulus, he said.

"The economic slowdown underway in Canada, due to softening external demand and a slumping housing market, points to an increasing output gap and more disinflationary pressures," Madani said. …

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