Putin's Aim to Dismantle Ukraine Heats Up Cold War
Two things were clear after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry's four hours of talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Paris last Sunday. One was that the United States accepts that nothing can be done about Russia's annexation of Crimea. Kerry continues to describe Russia's action as "illegal and illegitimate," but Crimea was not even mentioned in the communique released to the public.
The other is that the transformation of Ukraine into a neutral, federal state is now firmly on the table. Kerry repeatedly voiced the mantra that there must be "no decisions about Ukraine without Ukraine," but he also agreed with Lavrov that the subjects that need to be discussed include rights for national minorities, language rights, the disarmament of irregular forces and a constitutional reform that would make Ukraine a federal state.
By "rights for national minorities" and "language rights," he meant a special political status for Ukraine's 17 per cent ethnic-Russian minority and maybe even for the much larger number of Ukrainians -- probably 40 per cent to 45 per cent -- who speak Russian on a daily basis. Moscow is asserting its right to intervene in Ukraine's internal affairs to "protect" these minorities, and Kerry is at least willing to talk about it.
By "disarmament of irregular forces," Lavrov had meant the armed right-wing groups that played a small part in the revolution and still make occasional appearances on Independence Square and elsewhere in Kyiv. These groups are Moscow's pretext for claiming there has been a "fascist coup" in Kyiv, from which it says it has a duty to protect Russians and Russian-speakers in Ukraine.
Kerry might also have had in mind the armed pro-Moscow militias that occasionally appear in eastern Ukrainian cities, but he didn't say so. Nor did he mention the fact the Kyiv government is already moving to disarm, break up and arrest the right-wing groups in western Ukrainian cities.
By talking about "federalizing" Ukraine, Kerry was implicitly accepting that the Russian demand for a radical decentralization of the country (which could give pro-Russian governments in some eastern Ukrainian provinces a veto on decisions in Kyiv) is a legitimate topic for negotiation.
It's no wonder a satisfied Lavrov called the talks "very, very constructive," or that the Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesman said Russia was demanding "Ukraine's full capitulation, its split, and the destruction of Ukrainian statehood." And although Kerry promises "no decisions without Ukraine," Kyiv might not be able to reject American pressure to accept these concessions in its current gravely weakened state. …