Risks and Threats for Economic Security in Forest-Based Sector, Generated by Possible Climate Changes

By Konstantinov, Artem V.; Koroleva, Tatyana S. et al. | Asian Social Science, August 2015 | Go to article overview

Risks and Threats for Economic Security in Forest-Based Sector, Generated by Possible Climate Changes


Konstantinov, Artem V., Koroleva, Tatyana S., Vasilyev, Oleg I., Shunkina, Elizaveta A., Asian Social Science


Abstract

Due to expected climate changes, there is a forecast for arising of variety of interconnected and interdependent threats, leading to growth of risks in forest-based sector of economy.

Study of risk, as an economic category, has substantial significance for scientific and practical activity in forest-based sector, as it allows identifying the most dangerous threats for economic security.

This research includes the systematization of risk factors, caused by possible climate changes, with the allocation of the most dangerous ones which generate threats in forest-based sector of economy. Analysis of revealed risks is conducted on the basis of statistical methods of expert evaluation.

It has been established that most of threats for economic security in the sphere of forest use are related to climate change and have stochastic nature, which is determined by a large share of uncertainty of existing factors (air temperature, air and soil humidity, extreme weather phenomena). All of this significantly complicates the planning of work of forest relations members which in this case are the subjects of economic security.

The article emphasizes that the main problems of future forest-based sector will be caused by the change of forests productivity. Climate change, which could lead to forests' drying out, change of forest ecosystems, increase of the level of fires and broad-scale natural disasters will inevitably cause the difficulties in material and technical provision of forest-based sector and increase of expenses for all forestry operations. Consequently, there is a forecast for growth of risk factors in entrepreneurial activity, which will lead to risks of decrease of employment of population in forest husbandry, aggravation of labor conditions, reduction of profits of the sector, and decrease of employees' income. Economic and ecological consequences of climate change will have a vivid regional character.

Keywords: risk level, threats, social and economic security, forest-based sector

(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)

1. Introduction

Risks accompany any economic activity, but in forest-based sector they are most dangerous due to the difficulty of their complex evaluation with regard to indirect factors and factors that have long-term consequences.

Economic efficiency of forest economy supposes, as a rule, the quantity of production (products and services), manufactured by forests. These are economic indicators which can be easily measured; they are related to the results of forest industry work (Morkovina, 2014). In forest-based sector, besides influence of internal risk factors, caused by high level of unpredictability of results of forestry production, which, in its turn, is caused by long production cycle, technologies, and techniques of forestry works, the significant role belongs to external uncontrolled factors - primarily, natural, climate, and anthropogenous. In such cases, evaluation of efficiency of processes and probability of manifestation of risks often includes methods of indirect evaluation (FAO UN Global Forest Resources Assessment 2010; State of forests in Europe by 2011/ Short review for persons making decisions, 2011).

2. Methods

In order to allocate and analyze risks, caused by the influence of natural factors, the authors used the expert evaluation method, based on the survey of leaders of scientific and research organizations of forest-based sector. The respondents included five scientific-research institutes within the jurisdiction of Federal Forestry Agency.

In order to process the results of survey and evaluation of risks and threats in the forest economy system, 2 criteria were chosen:

(1) result (value of consequences) of the risk manifestation (scale: from "minimal consequences" to "huge consequences");

(2) probability of risk manifestation (scale: from "manifestation is unlikely" to "constant manifestation"). …

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