Long Term Cycles of Economic Development of the Russian Economy: Diagnosis Mechanisms, Trends and Forecasts

By Safiullin, Marat R.; Elshin, Leonid A. et al. | Journal of Economics and Economic Education Research, January 1, 2016 | Go to article overview

Long Term Cycles of Economic Development of the Russian Economy: Diagnosis Mechanisms, Trends and Forecasts


Safiullin, Marat R., Elshin, Leonid A., Prygunova, Maria I., Journal of Economics and Economic Education Research


INTRODUCTION

The work is performed according to the Russian Government Program of Competitive Growth of Kazan Federal University.

To this day, revealing the logics of influence of factors on the long-wave fluctuations is the most difficult task in the cyclical development theory for which there is a number of unresolved and controversial issues. As noted in the work of S. Glazyev (Glazyev, 201 ^"generalization of the long wave theory requires an interdisciplinary approach for which it is necessary to have a common methodological basis allowing combination of results of research in the technological, economic, institutional, managerial and sociological fields". In fact, understanding the long-term cyclical fluctuations logic is impossible without a comprehensive analysis of the institutional and market factors initiating this process. Moreover, these factors analysis should not be limited to only economic parameters due to the fact that the long-wave fluctuations are a complex multidimensional process which includes "multiple-order" and multilevel complex of factors for assessment of the general condition of the evolving system. As it was rightly, in our view, seen in the work of Perez (Perez, 1987) "the concept of technoeconomic paradigm reflects interaction between a technological mode and the socio-economic environment that mediates formation, growth and replacement processes". The methodologies designed in this study for diagnosing cyclical fluctuations completely fits in the defined research paradigms. It is based on the mechanisms for diagnosing not only conjunctural, but also institutional factors, and not only economic parameters, but the parameters that assess the social component of the system development.

METHODS

The results of the estimates and the experimental calculations based on rapid development cycles simulation have allowed revealing the contribution of each of the six indicators considered in influence on the nature and dynamics of the rapid development composite index (Table 1, Figure 1)

Methodological approaches to modeling the results obtained are presented in more details in the earlier writings of the authors. Their essence is in determination of the integral index dynamics that characterizes adjustments of expectations of economic agents through a system of indicators, time series of which have rapid development character regarding general economic trends. The basis of these indicators is a subindexes system (Safiullin et ah, 2015):

11 - Urban development index;

12 - Human Capital Index;

13 - Production Index;

14 - Social well-being index;

15 - Economical Activity Index;

16 - Research capacity index.

An important part of the rapid development indexes modeling is determination of the weight coefficients of the sub-indices considered. Upon that, the given stage of the simulation is grounded on taxonomic analysis methods (Safiullin et ah, 2015).

In terms of estimating the significance of each of the six sub-indices used in the model based on indicators characterizing the values of weighting coefficients, the greatest contribution to the long-wave fluctuations is made by the subindex which forms the research capacity of the system (16 = 0.217). The second most important indicator which estimates the effect of factors on the long-term cycle phase shift is the urban development change index (II = 0.211). It describes the institutional changes in the demographic profile of the national economy the effectiveness of which cannot be based on an understanding of current and projected urban trends which largely determine the potential institutional changes. It is necessary to take into account a whole range of characteristics of the demographic trends when addressing the organizational and economic problems on diagnosing and predicting cyclical fluctuations. In the context of the studied subject of research, these must involve, primarily, the formed and forming type and structure of urban and rural settlements, as well as its inherent positive or negative trends. …

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