WAEA 2003 Award Winners

Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, December 2004 | Go to article overview

WAEA 2003 Award Winners


Outstanding Master's Thesis

JOSÉ ENHIQUE LÓPEZ, "An Econometric and Simulation Model of the Mexican Cotton Industry," Texas Tech University.

JAIME MALAGA, Advisor

Accounting for about 20% of the U.S. total cotton exports in recent years, the Mexican market has become a top destination for U.S. cotton production. Simultaneously, the U.S. market is critical for the Mexican textile/clothing sector, absorbing almost 50% of its total output. This strong North American integration process, in part a result of the North American Free Trade Agreement, is being challenged by growing imports of Asian textile products and the approaching final implementation of the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC) on January 2005. The thesis develops a partial equilibrium econometric and simulation model that allows for the assessment of potential implications of the ATC's quota elimination on Mexico's cotton consumption and U.S. cotton exports to Mexico. On the supply side, separate behavioral equations for Mexican cotton harvested area and cotton yields are estimated. On the demand side, a two-stage procedure is utilized where the first stage consists of total fiber consumption, and the second stage was delineated by the cotton share of total fibers. Finally, an ending stock behavioral equation allows for an accurate closing of the model and the computation of net trade. Price transmission relations are additionally built for farm cotton prices, mill cotton prices, and competing crop prices in Mexico. These transmission relations are used to forecast domestic prices and to incorporate the international market effect into the model. The impacts of the ATC textile quota elimination are incorporated through the total fiber consumption behavioral equation and the textile and apparel price index in the United States. Using FAPRI projections for international prices, the estimated model is utilized to generate a baseline forecast for cotton production, total fiber consumption, cotton consumption, and net imports of cotton in Mexico, and to simulate the results of alternative reductions on U.S. textile/apparel prices as a consequence of the ATC quota elimination. Simulation results indicate that the United States exports of cotton to Mexico are forecasted to decline by 9% to 12% with respect to the baseline as a consequence of the elimination of the existing textile and apparel quotas to other U.S. suppliers.

Outstanding Extension Program

Management Analysis and Strategic Thinking (MAST)

VINCENT AMANOR-BOADU, ART BARNABY, DANIEL BERNAEDO, MIKE BOLAND, KEVIN DHUYVETTER, SARAH FOGELMAN, RODNEY JONES, TERRY KASTENS, MICHAEL LANGEMEIER, JAMES MINTERT, and CLAY SIMONS (Kansas State University).

Management Analysis and Strategic Thinking (MAST) is an innovative outreach program aimed at progressive farm managers. MAST provides a curriculum and delivery system that enables the serious and progressive manager to learn complex farm management concepts and tools and apply them to his or her unique management situation. The program utilizes a combination of face-to-face workshops and distance learning activities, to provide producers the opportunity to study and learn risk management and decision analysis tools and concepts.

Two critical elements of the program's design are: (1) the integration of face-to-face sessions with distance education delivery, and (2) emphasis on student-instructor and student-student interaction. Distance education has received some criticism because of the perceived isolation of students and lack of interaction between students and the instructor. The MAST program has demonstrated that these maladies can be overcome by combining state-of-the-art technology with proper curriculum design.

Farm managers participating in MAST move through the curriculum as cohorts of approximately 25 individuals. The program begins with a two-day workshop where program participants are introduced to key management tools and concepts to be emphasized in the program. …

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