Order Effect under the "Away-Goals Rule:" Evidence from CONMEBOL Competitions

By Varela-Quintana, Carlos; del Corral, Julio et al. | International Journal of Sport Finance, February 2018 | Go to article overview

Order Effect under the "Away-Goals Rule:" Evidence from CONMEBOL Competitions


Varela-Quintana, Carlos, del Corral, Julio, Prieto-Rodriguez, Juan, International Journal of Sport Finance


Introduction

Real life is full of examples of path dependence where the order really matters, such as a firm entering an industry first (Mueller, 1997), a candidate's performance in the early stages during primary elections (Knight & Schiff, 2010), or players moving first in a chess game (González-Díaz & Palacios-Huerta, 2016). Being first may start up feedback mechanisms that give pioneers an advantage over followers, but it also might become a serious disadvantage. In the industrial organization literature, first movers may benefit from the learning effect, the pre-emption of resources and the buyers' switching cost, while last movers may benefit freely from the experience of the pioneers, the lower uncertainty, and the incumbent inertia of the first movers (Lieberman & Montgomery, 1988).

In addition to the classical variables of the structure-conduct-performance paradigm, behaviour biases, such as psychological pressure and emotions, have also been proposed to explain the order effect in a sequential contest. In the absence of any bias, rational agents should have the same probability of winning regardless of the order in which they start a competition. Sport offers natural experiments to test this hypothesis. By analysing the Singles Championship at Wimbledon from 1992 to 1995, Magnus and Klaassen (1999a) found that players who served first in the first set had an advantage over their opponents. Similarly, Page (2009) used data from all the professional tennis matches played during 1991-2008 and found that players who won a close firstset tiebreak went on to win, on average, one game more in the second set. In soccer, Apesteguia and Palacios-Huerta (2010) analysed 269 penalty shoot-outs for the period 1970-2008 and reported an order effect whereby teams that began the sequence won 60.5% of the time. They associated this with psychological pressure on those taking penalties for the team that is behind in the score, especially in the decisive last rounds. Kolev, Pina, and Todeschini (2015) analysed the effect of a regulatory change in the U.S. National Hockey League that permitted home teams to decide who should start the penalty shoot-outs. They found that, despite the chances of scoring being much lower in hockey than in soccer, most home teams preferred to start first, and these teams did better (47.7% success) than those who decided to shoot second (only 43.7%).

Several studies have also provided evidence of second-mover advantages. One such advantage is judges' systematic bias that benefits those who perform last in a sequential evaluation. Bruine de Bruin (2005) found that contestants placed in the later positions of two contests (the Eurovision Song Contest and the World and European Figure Skating Championships) had significantly higher evaluations than those in the earlier positions. This happened regardless of whether they used an end-of-sequence or a step-by-step voting procedure. This strong effect was also reported by Page and Page (2010) in the Idol shows from eight countries. Additionally, the authors found a small advantage in the earliest positions of the series and a positive influence of the previous contestant's quality. By analyzing knockout contests from UEFA competitions over the period 1955-2006, Page and Page (2007) found that teams playing the second match at home were significantly more likely to win a two-leg match. They proposed as a possible explanation that the "home advantage1 could be higher for matches that have higher stakes or are more important with respect to their immediate outcomes" (p. 1554).2 Krumer (2013) elaborated a model that explained this phenomenon theoretically through the existence of a psychological advantage. Varela-Quintana, del Corral, and Prieto-Rodríguez (2015) found that this "second-leg home advantage" was especially relevant in close contests, and that the probability of recovery from a bad outcome in the first match was greater for those who played the second leg as hosts. …

The rest of this article is only available to active members of Questia

Already a member? Log in now.

Notes for this article

Add a new note
If you are trying to select text to create highlights or citations, remember that you must now click or tap on the first word, and then click or tap on the last word.
One moment ...
Default project is now your active project.
Project items
Notes
Cite this article

Cited article

Style
Citations are available only to our active members.
Buy instant access to cite pages or passages in MLA 8, MLA 7, APA and Chicago citation styles.

(Einhorn, 1992, p. 25)

(Einhorn 25)

(Einhorn 25)

1. Lois J. Einhorn, Abraham Lincoln, the Orator: Penetrating the Lincoln Legend (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992), 25, http://www.questia.com/read/27419298.

Note: primary sources have slightly different requirements for citation. Please see these guidelines for more information.

Cited article

Order Effect under the "Away-Goals Rule:" Evidence from CONMEBOL Competitions
Settings

Settings

Typeface
Text size Smaller Larger Reset View mode
Search within

Search within this article

Look up

Look up a word

  • Dictionary
  • Thesaurus
Please submit a word or phrase above.
Print this page

Print this page

Why can't I print more than one page at a time?

Help
Full screen
Items saved from this article
  • Highlights & Notes
  • Citations
Some of your highlights are legacy items.

Highlights saved before July 30, 2012 will not be displayed on their respective source pages.

You can easily re-create the highlights by opening the book page or article, selecting the text, and clicking “Highlight.”

matching results for page

    Questia reader help

    How to highlight and cite specific passages

    1. Click or tap the first word you want to select.
    2. Click or tap the last word you want to select, and you’ll see everything in between get selected.
    3. You’ll then get a menu of options like creating a highlight or a citation from that passage of text.

    OK, got it!

    Cited passage

    Style
    Citations are available only to our active members.
    Buy instant access to cite pages or passages in MLA 8, MLA 7, APA and Chicago citation styles.

    "Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn, 1992, p. 25).

    "Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn 25)

    "Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn 25)

    "Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences."1

    1. Lois J. Einhorn, Abraham Lincoln, the Orator: Penetrating the Lincoln Legend (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992), 25, http://www.questia.com/read/27419298.

    Cited passage

    Thanks for trying Questia!

    Please continue trying out our research tools, but please note, full functionality is available only to our active members.

    Your work will be lost once you leave this Web page.

    Buy instant access to save your work.

    Already a member? Log in now.

    Search by... Author
    Show... All Results Primary Sources Peer-reviewed

    Oops!

    An unknown error has occurred. Please click the button below to reload the page. If the problem persists, please try again in a little while.