Computer-Aided Decision Analysis: Theory and Applications

By Stuart S. Nagel | Go to book overview

5
Influence Diagrams for Decision Analysis

JIM McGOVERN, DANNY SAMSON, and ANDREW WIRTH


DECISION ANALYSIS-BASED DECISION SUPPORT

Decision analysis ( Keeney 1982; Raiffa 1970; Samson 1988; von Winterfeldt & Edwards 1986), the application of decision theory to real-world problems, has been referred to as the oldest, best established, and most articulate school of decision support systems modeling ( Stabell 1987). Decision analysis focuses not on modeling a system but on modeling the decision ( von Winterfeldt 1988). It provides methods for decomposing problems into sequences of choices, outcomes, events and their associated probabilities, and estimates of the preferences of decision makers for outcomes. The founding principle is that humans can process fragmented knowledge in the other forms reliably but have difficulty dealing with the aggregation of the fragments as complex problems ( Leal & Pearl 1977).

Decision analysis has been successfully and extensively applied to less well-structured problems (see Corner & Kirkwood 1991 for a recent survey of decision analysis applications). Keeney ( 1982) and Ulvila and Brown ( 1982) list a number of cases, as well as a number of large organizations that, by establishing groups within the organization, have committed themselves to the ongoing application of decision analysis. The many published cases include public utility technology choice ( Keeney, Lathrop & Sicherman 1986), nuclear power plant site selection ( Kirkwood 1982), information technology strategy ( Brooks & Kirkwood 1988; Williams 1986). new product development ( Conway 1986), manufacturing strategy ( Samson 1987), and general insurance strategy ( Samson 1986). These cases and others provide evidence of the wide applicability of decision analysis to decision support.

A major barrier to the further expansion of the use of decision analysis is the level of expertise needed to carry it out; many decision makers require

-107-

Notes for this page

Add a new note
If you are trying to select text to create highlights or citations, remember that you must now click or tap on the first word, and then click or tap on the last word.
One moment ...
Default project is now your active project.
Project items
Notes
Cite this page

Cited page

Style
Citations are available only to our active members.
Buy instant access to cite pages or passages in MLA 8, MLA 7, APA and Chicago citation styles.

(Einhorn, 1992, p. 25)

(Einhorn 25)

(Einhorn 25)

1. Lois J. Einhorn, Abraham Lincoln, the Orator: Penetrating the Lincoln Legend (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992), 25, http://www.questia.com/read/27419298.

Note: primary sources have slightly different requirements for citation. Please see these guidelines for more information.

Cited page

Bookmark this page
Computer-Aided Decision Analysis: Theory and Applications
Table of contents

Table of contents

Settings

Settings

Typeface
Text size Smaller Larger Reset View mode
Search within

Search within this book

Look up

Look up a word

  • Dictionary
  • Thesaurus
Please submit a word or phrase above.
Print this page

Print this page

Why can't I print more than one page at a time?

Help
Full screen
Items saved from this book
  • Bookmarks
  • Highlights & Notes
  • Citations
/ 292

matching results for page

    Questia reader help

    How to highlight and cite specific passages

    1. Click or tap the first word you want to select.
    2. Click or tap the last word you want to select, and you’ll see everything in between get selected.
    3. You’ll then get a menu of options like creating a highlight or a citation from that passage of text.

    OK, got it!

    Cited passage

    Style
    Citations are available only to our active members.
    Buy instant access to cite pages or passages in MLA 8, MLA 7, APA and Chicago citation styles.

    "Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn, 1992, p. 25).

    "Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn 25)

    "Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn 25)

    "Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences."1

    1. Lois J. Einhorn, Abraham Lincoln, the Orator: Penetrating the Lincoln Legend (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992), 25, http://www.questia.com/read/27419298.

    Cited passage

    Thanks for trying Questia!

    Please continue trying out our research tools, but please note, full functionality is available only to our active members.

    Your work will be lost once you leave this Web page.

    Buy instant access to save your work.

    Already a member? Log in now.

    Search by... Author
    Show... All Results Primary Sources Peer-reviewed

    Oops!

    An unknown error has occurred. Please click the button below to reload the page. If the problem persists, please try again in a little while.