International Finance and Financial Policy

By Hans R. Stoll | Go to book overview
hypothesis predicts that the dollar first will decline abruptly and then rise gradually, but end up at a lower level than where it started. This is the essence of the so-called over- shooting model ( Dornbusch, 1976). Unfortunately, empirical tests of the interest-rate parity hypothesis in its strict form has led to rejection in many cases (e.g., Baillie, forthcoming), leading economists to look for alternatives, either in the form of risk premia changing over time, market "bubbles," or explanations derived from social psychology, such as the influence of fads and fashions. Nevertheless, the weaker implication of a positive relation between domestic interest rates and exchange rates appear to be confirmed by the data.
9.
The decline in consumer spending during the 1974-75 recession was considerably larger than the experience of previous recessions would have indicated.

REFERENCES

Altonji J., F. Hayashi, and L. J. Kotlikoff. ( 1989). "Is the Extended Family Altruistically Linked? Direct Tests Using Micro Data." Unpublished paper, April.

Aschauer D. A. ( 1988). "Is Public Expenditure Productive?" Unpublished paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, June.

Baillie R. T. (Forthcoming). "Econometric Tests of Rationality and Market Efficiency." Econometric Reviews.

Baily M. N., and R. J. Gordon. ( 1988). "The Productivity Slowdown, Measurement Issues, and the Explosion of Computer Power." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2: 347-420.

Blinder A. S., and A. Deaton. ( 1985). "The Time Series Consumption Function Revisited." Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, 2: 465-511.

Christiano L. J. ( 1989). "Understanding Japan's Saving Rate: The Reconstruction Hypothesis." Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, 13( 2) (Spring): 10-25.

Dornbusch R. ( 1976). "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics." Journal of Political Economy 84( 6) (December): 1161-1176.

Evans P. ( 1988). "Are Consumers Ricardian? Evidence for the United States." Journal of Political Economy, 96( 5) (October): 983-1004.

Hayashi F., ( 1989). "Is Japan's Saving Rate High?" Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, 13( 2) (Spring): 3-9.

Kennedy P. M. ( 1987). The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. New York: Random House.

Knetter M. M. ( 1989). "Price Discrimination by U.S. and German Exporters." American Economic Review, 79( 1) (March): 198-210.

Tatom J. A. ( 1989). "U.S. Investment in the 1980s: The Real Story." Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 71( 2) (March/April): 3-15.

Wilcox D. W. ( 1989). "The Sustainability of Government Deficits: Implications of the Present-Value Borrowing Constraint." Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 21( 3) (August): 291-306.

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