In the 1930s, N.D. Kondratieff published an analysis of long economic waves of growth and decline. 1 These "Kondratieff Series" focused on British, French, German, and American prices, production, and consumption. The most systematic evidence was associated with his price series, which suggested three long waves:
Rise from about 1780 to 1810-1817; fall from 1810-1817 through 1844- 1851; Rise from 1844-1851 to 1870-1875; fall from 1870-75 through 1890-1896; Rise from 1890-1896 to 1914-1920; fall beginning in 1914-1920.
Kondratieff indicated several regularities in these waves, which he insisted were effects not causes of the long waves:
Downswing-Fall = Years of depression dominate; agriculture suffers pronounced and long depression; unusually many technical discoveries and inventions are made but not applied until the beginning of the next upswing-rise. Upswing-Rise = Years of prosperity are relatively more frequent; at the beginning, production grows and world markets assimilate new territories; the most disastrous and extensive wars and revolutions occur (this particular regularity has come to be known as "The Kondratieff War Generalization").
Kondratieff identified seven wars that began in a downswing-fall:
| 1823 Franco-Spanish|
1827 Navarino Bay
| 1877 Russo-Turkish|
| 1884 Sino-French|
1885 Central American