The Economic Basis of Peace: Linkages between Economic Growth and International Conflict

By William H. Mott IV | Go to book overview

Appendix C: On Long Waves

In the 1930s, N.D. Kondratieff published an analysis of long economic waves of growth and decline. 1 These "Kondratieff Series" focused on British, French, German, and American prices, production, and consumption. The most systematic evidence was associated with his price series, which suggested three long waves:

Rise from about 1780 to 1810-1817; fall from 1810-1817 through 1844- 1851;
Rise from 1844-1851 to 1870-1875; fall from 1870-75 through 1890-1896;
Rise from 1890-1896 to 1914-1920; fall beginning in 1914-1920.

Kondratieff indicated several regularities in these waves, which he insisted were effects not causes of the long waves:

Downswing-Fall = Years of depression dominate; agriculture suffers pronounced and long depression; unusually many technical discoveries and inventions are made but not applied until the beginning of the next upswing-rise.
Upswing-Rise = Years of prosperity are relatively more frequent; at the beginning, production grows and world markets assimilate new territories; the most disastrous and extensive wars and revolutions occur (this particular regularity has come to be known as "The Kondratieff War Generalization").

Kondratieff identified seven wars that began in a downswing-fall:

1823 Franco-Spanish
1827 Navarino Bay
1828 Russo-Turkish.
1877 Russo-Turkish
1879 Pacific
1884 Sino-French
1885 Central American

-241-

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The Economic Basis of Peace: Linkages between Economic Growth and International Conflict
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Recent Titles in Contributions in Economics and Economic History ii
  • Title Page iii
  • Contents v
  • Preface vii
  • Acknowledgments xi
  • 1 - Introduction 1
  • Notes 6
  • 2 - Historical Perspectives 9
  • Notes 30
  • 3 - Theoretical Approaches 37
  • Notes 97
  • 4 - An Empirical Approach 107
  • Notes 164
  • 5 - A Quandary and a Conjecture 171
  • Notes 188
  • 6 - What It All Means 193
  • Notes 229
  • Appendix A: On Economic Stagnation 237
  • Notes 238
  • Appendix B: On the Three Traditions 239
  • Notes 240
  • Appendix C: On Long Waves 241
  • Notes 243
  • Appendix D: On Foreign Investment 244
  • Note 245
  • Appendix E: On Division of Labor 246
  • Notes 246
  • Appendix F: On Alternative Economies 248
  • Notes 249
  • Appendix G: On Protoindustrialization 251
  • Notes 252
  • Appendix H: On Confidence Levels 253
  • Note 254
  • Appendix I: On Growth Processes 255
  • Notes 256
  • Appendix J: On Static Models 257
  • Appendix K: On Defense of Realism 259
  • Notes 260
  • Appendix L: On Growth Strategies 261
  • Appendix M: On Dualism and Growth 262
  • Notes 265
  • Appendix N: On Lawlike Regularities 267
  • Notes 269
  • Bibliography 271
  • Author Index 289
  • Subject Index 293
  • About the Author 305
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