The Causes of Economic Fluctuations: Possibilities of Anticipation and Control

By Willford I. King | Go to book overview

and refusing to extend further credit. Such actions are likely to frighten the public, hence whenever this situation is observed one is justified in preparing for a crisis in the near future.

Changes in Rate of Business Failures. -- After a bank or business collapse, the percentage of firms failing usually increases rapidly for a time. Eventually, however, even though the volume of production is still shrinking, the number of failures tends to become smaller. This diminution in the number of failures indicates that the weaker concerns have been largely eliminated, and that enterprises overburdened with debt have either gone to the wall or succeeded in putting their respective businesses on sounder financial bases. After a crash, therefore, a marked diminution in the number of failures ordinarily indicates that the bottom of the depression is almost reached, and that business will soon go ahead again.

Obstacles Hindering Successful Forecasting. -- All that has been done in the preceding pages is to hint at a few of the methods used by those called upon to make business forecasts. These, and hundreds of other devices, are combined in innumerable ways, and utilized by business men or professional forecasters. Unfortunately for the forecasters, however, none of the indicators, or combinations of the same, work with the precision and uniformity desired. Furthermore, lags are so highly variable that they give rise to errors in forecasting which are extremely serious. Under the circumstances, even the most highly skilled forecasters are never able to secure results which they feel to be entirely satisfactory. The best that they can hope to accomplish is to make predictions which come true in a materially larger proportion of cases than do the predictions made by rule of thumb methods or on the basis of guesses or "hunches."


REFERENCES

For further information on this topic, see:

Angas L. L. B. Investment for Appreciation. Somerset Publishing Co., New York, 1936.

Ashley Forrest B. "Cotton Futures as Forecasters of Cotton Spot Prices". Journal of the American Statistical Association, December, 1929, pp. 412- 419.

-263-

Notes for this page

Add a new note
If you are trying to select text to create highlights or citations, remember that you must now click or tap on the first word, and then click or tap on the last word.
One moment ...
Default project is now your active project.
Project items
Notes
Cite this page

Cited page

Style
Citations are available only to our active members.
Buy instant access to cite pages or passages in MLA 8, MLA 7, APA and Chicago citation styles.

(Einhorn, 1992, p. 25)

(Einhorn 25)

(Einhorn 25)

1. Lois J. Einhorn, Abraham Lincoln, the Orator: Penetrating the Lincoln Legend (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992), 25, http://www.questia.com/read/27419298.

Note: primary sources have slightly different requirements for citation. Please see these guidelines for more information.

Cited page

Bookmark this page
The Causes of Economic Fluctuations: Possibilities of Anticipation and Control
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Title Page i
  • Preface v
  • Contents vii
  • Charts xiii
  • Chapter 1 - INTRODUCTION 3
  • References 18
  • Chapter 2 - CHARACTERISTICS OF BUSINESS DEPRESSIONS 20
  • References 47
  • Chapter 3 - RECORD OF BUSINESS DEPRESSIONS IN THE UNITED STATES 49
  • References 72
  • Chapter 4 - MISLEADING EXPLANATIONS OF THE ORIGINS OF DEPRESSIONS 74
  • References 107
  • Chapter 5 - INADEQUATE EXPLANATIONS OF THE ORIGINS OF DEPRESSIONS 109
  • References 124
  • Chapter 6 - THE DEPRESSION CULTURE-MEDIUM 125
  • REFFRENCES 134
  • Chapter 7 - THE DEPRESSION'S ORIGIN 138
  • References 168
  • Chapter 8 - FORCES TENDING TO ACCENTUATE AND PROLONG DEPRESSIONSS 169
  • References 194
  • Chapter 9 - INEFFECTIVE WAYS OF COMBATING DEPRESSION 196
  • References 207
  • Chapter 10 - FORCES COMMONLY TENDING TO END DEPRESSION 209
  • References 222
  • Chapter 11 - CYCLES 223
  • References 244
  • Chapter 12 - THE POSSIBILITY OF FORECASTING BUSINESS FLUCTUATIONS 247
  • References 263
  • Chapter 13 - SOCIAL COST OF UNSTABLE PRODUCTION 266
  • References 279
  • Chapter 14 - WAYS TO MINIMIZE DEPRESSION 282
  • References 311
  • Chapter 15 - WAYS TO MINIMIZE DEPRESSION (CONTINUED) 313
  • References 337
  • Index 339
Settings

Settings

Typeface
Text size Smaller Larger Reset View mode
Search within

Search within this book

Look up

Look up a word

  • Dictionary
  • Thesaurus
Please submit a word or phrase above.
Print this page

Print this page

Why can't I print more than one page at a time?

Help
Full screen
Items saved from this book
  • Bookmarks
  • Highlights & Notes
  • Citations
/ 353

matching results for page

    Questia reader help

    How to highlight and cite specific passages

    1. Click or tap the first word you want to select.
    2. Click or tap the last word you want to select, and you’ll see everything in between get selected.
    3. You’ll then get a menu of options like creating a highlight or a citation from that passage of text.

    OK, got it!

    Cited passage

    Style
    Citations are available only to our active members.
    Buy instant access to cite pages or passages in MLA 8, MLA 7, APA and Chicago citation styles.

    "Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn, 1992, p. 25).

    "Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn 25)

    "Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn 25)

    "Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences."1

    1. Lois J. Einhorn, Abraham Lincoln, the Orator: Penetrating the Lincoln Legend (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992), 25, http://www.questia.com/read/27419298.

    Cited passage

    Thanks for trying Questia!

    Please continue trying out our research tools, but please note, full functionality is available only to our active members.

    Your work will be lost once you leave this Web page.

    Buy instant access to save your work.

    Already a member? Log in now.

    Search by... Author
    Show... All Results Primary Sources Peer-reviewed

    Oops!

    An unknown error has occurred. Please click the button below to reload the page. If the problem persists, please try again in a little while.