The arguments presented here are derived from quantitative analyses carried out during a global study done by CIRED with the cooperation of the Money, Finance and Development Division of UNCTAD.
Two related scenarios, reflecting current debates on development strategies for the Third World and which evaluate the consequences of alternative strategies, were constructed for twelve regions of the Third World, using the same growth rate (6.3% between 1973 and 2000).
Scenario A: competition-specialisation scenario whereby each country seeks to improve its position in relation to the world market and specialises in those activities in which it enjoys a comparative advantage, domestic needs being satisfied out of foreign currency from expert earnings. In this scenario, development in the energy field is based on huge centralised systems that emphasise economies of scale and the centralisation of supply. It leads to a long-term transition strategy relying on coal and nuclear power.
Scenario B: endogenous or self-reliant development whereby growth is based on the domestic market and the maximum development of national resources. In this scenario, international specialisation becomes a variable derived from national objectives and is no longer a dominant objective. The energy strategy emphasises the selection of the most efficient sources to meet given energy needs. This model generates diversified means of satisfying needs and diverse systems of energy supply. It leads to a long-term transition strategy in which renewable energy can have a decisive role. Two global equations, Ae and Be, are presented for each scenario. These are based on the mechanical implications of the normative hypothesis but do not take into account____________________