Judgment and Decision Making: Neo-Brunswikian and Process-Tracing Approaches

By Peter Juslin; Henry Montgomery | Go to book overview

CONCLUSIONS FROM THE EMPIRICAL STUDIES

The majority of the participants in the experimental group in the study by Brehmer and Jansson ( 1993) failed to reach an acceptable level of performance, despite the fact that they had been given specific target values for several of the central variables in the MORO system. In the discussion of this result, Jansson ( 1997) assumed that it is not enough to know what subgoals to achieve, but more important, to know how to achieve them. This means that the participants must establish some sort of procedural knowledge in the form of a good enough operative mental model to be able to specify action alternatives on a concrete level. However, an ordinary participant in an experiment with MORO seems unlikely to be able to develop such an operative mental model of the system. Jansson ( 1994a) showed, however, that if participants are taught adaptive strategies for how to approach a system like MORO, they can benefit from such instructions and perform significantly better than a control group of participants. The better performances were accompanied by enhanced mental models of the system within these participants. It thus seems as if the complex and opaque nature of MORO demands from the participant a strategy for dealing with such task characteristics in order to be able to develop a good enough operative mental model.

Without such instructions, however, the majority of participants seem to not develop appropriate decision strategies. An important research question then, is whether the absence of adaptive decision strategies leads to bad performance. The results from Jansson ( 1994b) suggest that. Six out of seven maladaptive decision strategies were found more often among participants who later ended up with bad performance. More important, all seven behaviors were found before the participants had any indication of any negative consequences, in terms of external feedback cues, to which they could relate their own actions.

In order to understand human decision making in complex, opaque, and dynamic environments, the results from the studies reviewed above suggest that it is not only important to analyse the performance of the participants, but also to analyse the participants' behaviors.


GENERAL CONCLUSIONS

Björkman ( 1984) concluded that "man's limited cognition in conjunction with technological means of control sometimes may lead to decisions with disastrous consequences in the future" (p. 45). With that conclusion, he not only predicted a number of incidents in real life (for examples of such man-machine failures, see Reason, 1990), but he also predicted the kind

-40-

Notes for this page

Add a new note
If you are trying to select text to create highlights or citations, remember that you must now click or tap on the first word, and then click or tap on the last word.
One moment ...
Default project is now your active project.
Project items

Items saved from this book

This book has been saved
Highlights (0)
Some of your highlights are legacy items.

Highlights saved before July 30, 2012 will not be displayed on their respective source pages.

You can easily re-create the highlights by opening the book page or article, selecting the text, and clicking “Highlight.”

Citations (0)
Some of your citations are legacy items.

Any citation created before July 30, 2012 will labeled as a “Cited page.” New citations will be saved as cited passages, pages or articles.

We also added the ability to view new citations from your projects or the book or article where you created them.

Notes (0)
Bookmarks (0)

You have no saved items from this book

Project items include:
  • Saved book/article
  • Highlights
  • Quotes/citations
  • Notes
  • Bookmarks
Notes
Cite this page

Cited page

Style
Citations are available only to our active members.
Buy instant access to cite pages or passages in MLA, APA and Chicago citation styles.

(Einhorn, 1992, p. 25)

(Einhorn 25)

1. Lois J. Einhorn, Abraham Lincoln, the Orator: Penetrating the Lincoln Legend (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992), 25, http://www.questia.com/read/27419298.

Cited page

Bookmark this page
Judgment and Decision Making: Neo-Brunswikian and Process-Tracing Approaches
Table of contents

Table of contents

Settings

Settings

Typeface
Text size Smaller Larger Reset View mode
Search within

Search within this book

Look up

Look up a word

  • Dictionary
  • Thesaurus
Please submit a word or phrase above.
Print this page

Print this page

Why can't I print more than one page at a time?

Help
Full screen
/ 346

matching results for page

    Questia reader help

    How to highlight and cite specific passages

    1. Click or tap the first word you want to select.
    2. Click or tap the last word you want to select, and you’ll see everything in between get selected.
    3. You’ll then get a menu of options like creating a highlight or a citation from that passage of text.

    OK, got it!

    Cited passage

    Style
    Citations are available only to our active members.
    Buy instant access to cite pages or passages in MLA, APA and Chicago citation styles.

    "Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn, 1992, p. 25).

    "Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn 25)

    "Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences."1

    1. Lois J. Einhorn, Abraham Lincoln, the Orator: Penetrating the Lincoln Legend (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992), 25, http://www.questia.com/read/27419298.

    Cited passage

    Thanks for trying Questia!

    Please continue trying out our research tools, but please note, full functionality is available only to our active members.

    Your work will be lost once you leave this Web page.

    Buy instant access to save your work.

    Already a member? Log in now.

    Oops!

    An unknown error has occurred. Please click the button below to reload the page. If the problem persists, please try again in a little while.