feasible for most products other than petroleum, continues to lurk in the background as the "threat from the third world."24

Another consideration may also lead Brazil to play a moderating role in commodity arrangements. Brazil imports certain key raw materials in addition to oil--among them, copper and wheat. To some extent Brazil's economy has characteristics similar to those of industrial countries relying on imported raw materials in at least some sectors. Any generalized resort to cartel pricing could injure Brazil in specific areas, perhaps by more than could be made up by resulting gains on prices of other commodities.

In sum, Brazil is most likely to play a pragmatic moderating role in the discussions on proposals for a new international economic order. Given Brazil's international economic weight, and in light of Brazil's already substantial role in the monetary reform negotiations, the country's part in the negotiations in the future will be important. And this fact appears to have been officially recognized by the recent mutual consultation agreement between Brazil and the United States.


Conclusion

Brazil stands at a turning point in its development strategy. After seven years of extraordinary success in expanding exports and raising the degree of openness in the Brazilian economy, the country faces very severe foreign sector constraints brought on by excessive import growth (especially in 1974) and mounting external debt. A new set of import controls, if permanent and growing, could mean the end of the outward-looking phase of Brazilian growth and a reversion to the import substitution strategy of the 1950s--despite the general recognition that import substitution industrialization has been milked dry. By contrast, with an international economy pulling out of recession, with appropriate exchange rate policy, and with an absence of new restrictions on industrial country import markets, it is possible and even likely that Brazil would be able to return to an export oriented strategy. (It would, however, be unrealistic to expect the high export growth rates of 1967-73 to repeat themselves, since their continuation would raise the openness of the economy to improbably high levels.)

As the largest single importer among the LDCs, one of the largest exporters, and the third largest LDC in population, Brazil occupies a

____________________
24
C. Fred Bergsten, "The Threat from the Third World," Foreign Policy, no. 11 (Summer 1973).

-86-

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Brazil in the Seventies
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Title Page iii
  • Contents v
  • Introduction 1
  • 1: BRAZIL'S CHANGING ROLE IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM: IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. POLICY 9
  • 2: THE BRAZILIAN GROWTH and DEVELOPMENT EXPERIENCE: 1964-1975 41
  • Introduction 41
  • Conclusion 86
  • 4: TRENDS IN BRAZILIAN NATIONAL DEPENDENCY SINCE 1964 89
  • Summary and Conclusions 110
  • CONTRIBUTORS 117
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