Gorbachev's Retreat: The Third World

By Melvin A. Goodman | Go to book overview

and Soviet-U.S. policy toward conflict resolution in the Third World. The Soviets have signaled that Shevardnadze's sudden resignation will not change the pattern of cooperation. 16


NOTES
1.
See Alvin Z. Rubinstein, Moscow's Third World Strategy, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1988; Francis Fukuyama, Moscow's Post-Brezhnev Reassessment of the Third World, Santa Monica: Rand Corporation, 1986.
2.
The Washington Post, October 22, 1989, p. 1.
3.
The Washington Post, October 17, 1988, p. 1.
4.
The normal presence of the Soviet Mediterranean Squadron consists of 5 to 7 submarines, 6 to 10 surface warships, and 14 auxiliary ships.
5.
The Soviet Union registered a substantial decrease in its share of Third World arms transfer agreements in 1988, falling from 50% in 1987 to 33% in 1988. The total value of the Soviet Unions' agreements also fell dramatically in 1988, from $19 billion in 1987 to $10 billion. See Richard F. Grimmett, "Trends in Conventional Arms Transfers to the Third World by Major Supplier, 1981-1988," Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 1989.
6.
The Soviets supplied no arms to Iran between 1985 and 1990 and delivered more than $10 billion in arms to Iraq during the same period; the USSR was responsible for nearly one-third of the arms delivered to the principals in the Iran-Iraq war since the start of fighting in 1980. Western Europe's share of deliveries to Baghdad and Tehran is nearly 25% and China's share is more than 15%. The Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in August 1990 led to resumption of Soviet military supplies to Iran.
7.
Although the Soviets have at least temporarily ended direct military deliveries to Nicaragua, they remain Cuba's principal supplier, making more than $12 billion in weapons deliveries over the past ten years. Cuba, of course, is Nicaragua's major supplier of military weapons.
8.
Michael MccGwire, Military Objectives in Soviet Foreign Policy, Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1987, p. 220. MccGwire's book usefully identifies key decision points in Soviet strategic thinking but, in general, exaggerates the importance of the Third World to Soviet military and geopolitical interests.
9.
The New York Times, June 9, 1989, p. 3, "Radical Plan to Balance Soviet Budget" by Bill Keller; The Washington Post, December 14, 1989, p. 1, "Soviet to Accelerate Output for Consumer," by Michael Dobbs.
10.
Pravda, June 26, 1990, p. 3.
11.
Vestnik Ministerstva Inostrannykh Sel SSR, August 1988, Speech by Foreign Minister Shevardnadze to the "USSR Ministry of Foreign Affairs", pp. 27-46.
12.
The New York Times, December 8, 1988, p. 1, General Secretary Gorbachev speech to the UNGA.
13.
Kremlinology relies on an interpretation of Soviet public statements and propaganda as a means of making inferences about Soviet actions and policies.

-8-

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Gorbachev's Retreat: The Third World
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Title Page iii
  • Contents vii
  • Preface ix
  • Note xi
  • Introduction 1
  • Notes 8
  • 1 - Soviet Policy and the Third World 11
  • Notes 26
  • 2 - Decision Making Under Gorbachev 29
  • Notes 47
  • 3 - Afghanistan 51
  • Notes 69
  • 4: Limits to Power 73
  • 5 - The Regional Implications of Gorbachev's New Political Thinking"" 97
  • Notes 121
  • 6 - Soviet Power Projection and Crisis Management Under Gorbachev 125
  • Notes 141
  • 7 - Soviet Military and Economic Aid 145
  • Notes 164
  • 8 - Soviet Retreat in the 1990s 169
  • Notes 186
  • Bibliographic Essay 189
  • Index 195
  • About the Author 207
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