Current Issues in Monetary Policy in the United States and Japan: The Predictability of Money Demand

By Elias C. Grivoyannis | Go to book overview

NOTES
1
A conventional Goldfeld demand-for-money specification estimated with quarterly U.S. data over the 1952.III- 1979.III period gives a standard error of 0.42 percent. When the same function is estimated over 1952.II- 1986.IV, the standard error becomes 0.61 percent (an increase of 45.24 percent), while an estimation over 1974.II- 1986.IV raises the standard error to 0.84 percent (an increase of 100 percent). When such equations are simulated dynamically with post-sample data for the post- 1982 period, they generate cumulative Root Mean Square Errors of 4 percent to 8 percent, while similar simulations for pre- 1974 data generated cumulative Root Mean Square Errors of 0.5 percent to 1.5 percent. See S. M. Goldfeld, "Money Demand." In Friedman and Hahn (eds), Handbook of Monetary Economics, Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Co., forthcoming.
2
John P. Judd, and John L. Scadding, "The Search for a Stable Money Demand Function: A Survey of the Post-1973 Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, 20, September 1982, pp. 993-1023.
3
Stephen M. Goldfeld, "The Demand for Money Revisited,"

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