Demography and Retirement: The Twenty-First Century

By Anna M. Rappaport; Sylvester J. Schieber | Go to book overview

Imputed rent on an asset is calculated as annual depreciation plus 3 percent times the stock of the asset. Annual depreciation of consumer durables and government tangible assets as well as the stocks of consumer durables and government tangible assets are reported in the U.S. Dept. of Commerce's Fixed Reproducible Tangible Wealth in the United States, 1925-85.


Table 2. Demographic Simulations from the AK (1990b) Model
Nat. Saving Rate Base Case No Age-Specific 2 Yr Inc in Soc Sec
1960 9.8 9.8 9.8
1985 12.2 12.2 12.2
1990 11.7 11.7 12.0
2010 9.5 9.4 10.1
2030 6.5 6.6 7.2
2050 5.8 5.9 6.3
Long Run 6.3 6.3 6.6
Consumption Tax Rate
1960 9.8 9.8 9.8
1985 8.3 8.3 8.2
1990 8.6 8.6 8.4
2010 5.7 5.5 5.2
2030 5.8 5.2 4.9

2050
5.5 4.8 4.5
Long Run 5.3 4.6 4.1
Social Security Tax Rate 1960 7.1 7.1 7.1
1985 7.6 7.6 7.5
1990 8.0 7.9 7.9
2010 10.2 10.2 8.0
2030 12.8 12.8 10.2
2050 12.8 12.8 10.1
Long Run 12.3 12.3 9.9

ENDNOTES
1.
This and other projections for the U.S. and other countries come from Auerbach et al ( 1989), and were compiled from Social Security Administration projections for the United States and comparable statistics for other countries.
2.
The three models were of an infinite horizon households, several life-cycle households, and a reduced form time series model incorporating demographic variables.
3.
These social security tax rates should be viewed as the sum of employer plus employee social security taxes. The reason that the model's social security tax rates are lower than the actual social security tax rates is that the model assesses social security taxes on all earnings: i.e., there is no earnings ceiling in

-180-

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Demography and Retirement: The Twenty-First Century
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Title Page iii
  • MEMBERS OF THE PENSION RESEARCH COUNCIL v
  • Purpose of the Council vii
  • Contents ix
  • 1: Overview 1
  • Introduction 1
  • 2: Demographic Change in the United States, 1970-2050 19
  • ENDNOTES 47
  • Stephen C. Goss 53
  • Barry Edmonston 57
  • Introduction 57
  • 3: Expected Changes in the Workforce and Implications for Labor Markets 73
  • Introduction 73
  • Joseph F. Quinn 105
  • 4: Can Our Social Insurance Systems Survive the Demographic Shifts of the Twenty-First Century? 111
  • Introduction 112
  • ENDNOTES 148
  • 5: The Impact of the Demographic Transition on Capital Formation 163
  • Introduction 163
  • ENDNOTES 180
  • Alicia H. Munnell 183
  • 6: Implications of Demographic Change for Design of Retirement Programs 189
  • 7: Trends in Health Among the American Population 225
  • Introduction 225
  • ENDNOTES 242
  • Discussions 243
  • 8: Population Aging and Retirement Policy: An International Perspective 255
  • Introduction 255
  • ENDNOTES 284
  • Robert J. Myers 293
  • Bibliography 297
  • Index 315
  • Contributors 323
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