Southern Parties and Elections: Studies in Regional Political Change

By Robert P. Steed; Laurence W. Moreland et al. | Go to book overview

Table 2.6. Regression Estimates of Black and White Voter Turnout in Louisiana in 1987 and 1991
SenateHouse
VariableBlack
turnouta
White
turnoutb
Black
turnouta
White
turnoutb
White candidates.648.031.448.527
t.865.0801.2721.770*
Black candidates-.306-.848.483-.359
t-.146-.91.872-.768
Black registration-.049-.078-.029-.087
t-.067-1.884*-.558-2.743**
New black district4.1576.595-2.0042.629
t.8632.677**-.9261.437
Constant64.48576.18264.59675.086
R2.094.342.033.273
Adjusted R2-.13.265-.006.244
N3939105105
F.8824.226.8429.375
aThe dependent variable is the percent black voter turnout at the district level.
bThe dependent variable is the percent white voter turnout at the district level.
*p < .05, one-tailed test. **p < .01, one-tailed test.

hood integration frequently place affluent white neighborhoods in districts with majority black populations.

The final statistically significant relationship in table 2.6 is for the new black district variable in the senate model. White turnout is 6.6 percentage points higher in newly created black senate districts. This relationship probably arises from the mobilization effort of successful white senate candidates in several newly black districts in Baton Rouge and the Delta.28


Conclusions

The rationale for creating majority-minority districts "whenever possible" has rested on assumptions that: (1) minority voters prefer members of their own racial group who cannot be elected in districts where they are the minority; (2) creating conditions to promote the emergence of minority candidates will increase the likelihood that the expressed minority prefer-

-49-

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