Individual and Group Decision Making: Current Issues

By N. John Castellan Jr. | Go to book overview

appear to be an afterthought. But the argument can be made that the decision maker's uncertainty about that choice may be as important to decision theory and practice as choice itself ( Sniezek & Henry, 1989). Confidence can be expressed by subjective probabilities about the likelihood of events and interpreted as willingness to act ( Savage, 1954). Thus, confidence will determine how the decision maker will use the decision. And, given that confidence contributes to influence ( Buckley & Sniezek, 1990), the decision maker's confidence may determine how others use the decision as well.

Uncertainty in decision making has various implications for the behavior of individuals. Sniezek and Paese ( 1989) observed superior individual accuracy in subjects who were required to provide credible intervals for their risk judgments compared to subjects who gave only judgments. Merely having to express one's uncertainty about one's judgment can change the judgment process--for the better. Uncertainty has been shown to affect cognitive processes by mediating reactions to priming ( Eder & Fedor, 1989) and the extent of information search ( Cooper & Sniezek, 1992).

The ultimate contribution of research on confidence for decision-making theory and practice depends on the demonstration of consequences of confidence for decision-relevant behavior. Although empirical observation of confidence in individual judgment and choice has increased substantially in recent years, there has been little interest in linking confidence to behavior. This is perhaps the most fruitful direction for future behavioral decision research. As pointed out by Switzer and Sniezek ( 1991), the ultimate importance of any judgment bias is in the behavior.


REFERENCES

Anderson B. F., Deane D. H., Hammond K. R., McClelland G. H., & Shanteau J. C. ( 1981). Concepts in judgment and decision research. New York: Praeger.

Arkes J. R., Christensen C., Lai C., & Blumer C. ( 1987). "Two methods of reducing overconfidence". Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 39, 133-144.

Berkely D., & Humphreys P. ( 1982). "Structuring decision problems and the bias heuristic". Acta Psychologica, 50, 201-252.

Bettman J. R., Johnson E. J., & Payne J. W. ( 1990). "A componential analysis of cognitive effort in choice". Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 45( 1), 111-139.

Brehmer B. ( 1980). "Effect of cue validity on learning of complex rules in probabilistic inference tasks". Acta Psychologica, 44, 201-210.

Brunswik E. ( 1952). The conceptual framework of psychology. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Brunswik E. ( 1956). Perception and the representative design of experiments. Berkeley: University of California Press.

Buckley T. ( 1991). Judgmental forecasts of outcomes of sporting events as a function of forecast horizon. Unpublished data.

Buckley T., & Sniezek J. A. ( 1990, November 18-19). Confidence as influence in a no-feedback choice task. Annual meeting of the Judgment and Decision Making Society, New Orleans.

-106-

Notes for this page

Add a new note
If you are trying to select text to create highlights or citations, remember that you must now click or tap on the first word, and then click or tap on the last word.
One moment ...
Default project is now your active project.
Project items
Notes
Cite this page

Cited page

Style
Citations are available only to our active members.
Buy instant access to cite pages or passages in MLA 8, MLA 7, APA and Chicago citation styles.

(Einhorn, 1992, p. 25)

(Einhorn 25)

(Einhorn 25)

1. Lois J. Einhorn, Abraham Lincoln, the Orator: Penetrating the Lincoln Legend (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992), 25, http://www.questia.com/read/27419298.

Note: primary sources have slightly different requirements for citation. Please see these guidelines for more information.

Cited page

Bookmark this page
Individual and Group Decision Making: Current Issues
Table of contents

Table of contents

Settings

Settings

Typeface
Text size Smaller Larger Reset View mode
Search within

Search within this book

Look up

Look up a word

  • Dictionary
  • Thesaurus
Please submit a word or phrase above.
Print this page

Print this page

Why can't I print more than one page at a time?

Help
Full screen
Items saved from this book
  • Bookmarks
  • Highlights & Notes
  • Citations
/ 320

matching results for page

    Questia reader help

    How to highlight and cite specific passages

    1. Click or tap the first word you want to select.
    2. Click or tap the last word you want to select, and you’ll see everything in between get selected.
    3. You’ll then get a menu of options like creating a highlight or a citation from that passage of text.

    OK, got it!

    Cited passage

    Style
    Citations are available only to our active members.
    Buy instant access to cite pages or passages in MLA 8, MLA 7, APA and Chicago citation styles.

    "Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn, 1992, p. 25).

    "Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn 25)

    "Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn 25)

    "Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences."1

    1. Lois J. Einhorn, Abraham Lincoln, the Orator: Penetrating the Lincoln Legend (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992), 25, http://www.questia.com/read/27419298.

    Cited passage

    Thanks for trying Questia!

    Please continue trying out our research tools, but please note, full functionality is available only to our active members.

    Your work will be lost once you leave this Web page.

    Buy instant access to save your work.

    Already a member? Log in now.

    Search by... Author
    Show... All Results Primary Sources Peer-reviewed

    Oops!

    An unknown error has occurred. Please click the button below to reload the page. If the problem persists, please try again in a little while.