World Population Trends and Their Impact on Economic Development

By Dominick Salvatore | Go to book overview
2.
Salvatore ( 1981b) has even shown that for the internal migration flows in Italy it was theoretically and empirically preferable to take the explanatory variables separately and independently, rather than within a single composite Todaro index.
3.
Here, we may only mention the limited applicability of the Cochrane-Orcutt procedure to correct for serial correlation in the case of small samples ( Harvey, 1981: 198). In following Greenwood and Hunt ( 1984: 962), we had to look, therefore, for the validity of our model by a fully dynamic historical simulation.
4.
Following Greenwood ( 1975b: 804), we will classify the signs of our estimations in the categories "not unexpected" and "unexpected," where we mean by "not unexpected" either expected a priori or not specified. We will also follow his procedure that "when a coefficient has a 'wrong' sign (or when a sign is not specified), a two-tail test of the null hypothesis is applied" and use a one-tail test otherwise (i.e., when a sign is expected). For better model specification y, and r, are expressed in their logarithmic form.
5.
Due to the fact that the actual emigration rates were lower than 0.001 in some years, for Spain and Turkey the figures in Table 10.2 reflect respectively the percentage difference between the simulated and actual mean, and the rms error.
6.
While these rms percentage-errors may seem large, they are encouraging as compared to the rms percentage-errors of some of the simultaneous-equations model on internal migration (see as an example Greenwood and Hunt 1984: 967).
7.
The World Bank research study on labor migration in the Middle East and North Africa analyzes labor migration using a simultaneous-equations model ( Serageldin et al., 1983; the complete model was described in World Bank, 1983). The results of that study, however, were of interest rather on the level of model techniques, indicating "avenues" for further studies in the "development of an alternative and better algorithm for the solution of the systemic model" ( World Bank, 1985: 38) than in the context of carrying out "detailed field work and econometric studies which could be used to predict migration flows among countries in response to economic and other social variables" ( World Bank, 1985: 2).

REFERENCES

Basmann R. L. ( 1962). "Letter to the Editor." Econometrica 30: 824-26.

Bhagwati J. N. ( 1983). Essays in International Economic Theory. R. C. Feenstra, ed. Vol. 2. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.

_____ ( 1984). "Incentives and Disincentives: International Migration." Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 120: 678-701.

Böhning W. R. ( 1984). Studies in International Labour Migration. New York: St. Martin's Press.

Fair R. C. ( 1970). "The Estimation of Simultaneous Equation Models with Lagged Endogenous Variables and First Order Serially Correlated Errors." Econometrica 38: 507 - 16.

Fields G. S. ( 1975). "Rural-Urban Migration, Urban Unemployment and Underemployment, and Job-Search Activity in LDCS." Journal of Development Economics 2: 165-87.

_____ ( 1976). "Labor Force Migration, Unemployment and Job Turnover." Review of Economics and Statistics 61: 21 -32.

Greenwood M. J. ( 1975a). "Research on Internal Migration in the U.S.: A Survey." Journal of Economic Literature 13: 397-433.

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