China's Energy Strategy: Economic Structure, Technological Choices, and Energy Consumption

By Xiannuan Lin | Go to book overview

Variations in energy growth rates, however, had almost no effect on the structure of energy consumption in China. As is shown in table 2.3 and figure 2.1, the distribution of total energy consumption among different sectors and individual energy types was stable and remained almost unchanged between 1981 and 1987. This suggests that, overall, changing energy mix and sectoral distribution of energy consumption were not the primary cause of energy- intensity decline between 1981 and 1987.


LINKING ENERGY-USE CHANGES WITH CHANGES IN THE ECONOMY

One of the main purposes of this study is to draw connections between the energy-use changes from 1981 to 1987 and changes in the economy. Energy is used in a large number of diverse economic activities undertaken by many different types of actors ( Schipper and Meyers, 1992). We group the causes of changes in energy into two categories: (1) changes in what final goods and services people consume (final demand), and (2) changes in how those goods and services are produced (production technology). In subsequent chapters of this study, we will link energy-use changes between 1981 and 1987 to changes in final demand and production technology and identify the main factors that were responsible for the energy-intensity reduction. Energy consumption in China's economy, for example, will increase if consumers purchase more final goods and services or if they shift their spending patterns from less energy-intensive products, such as services, to more energy-intensive ones, such as durable manufactured goods, everything else being equal. This increase, however, may be moderated or counterbalanced by the introduction of alternative production technologies that reduce the amount of energy input used to produce final goods and services. Various elements of final-demand shifts and production-technology changes are at work simultaneously; they may be either reinforcing or offsetting. Using a structural-decomposition analysis, we will identify those elements, quantify their individual energy impacts, and determine their combined effect on the aggregate energy consumption of China's economy.


NOTES
1.
See EIA ( 1977) for a summary of the nature, measurement, comparison, and utilization of energy commodities and for a set of tables for converting different energy commodities into a common base. See Slesser ( 1978) and Spreng ( 1988) for discussions of national and international energy statistics.
2.
See chapter 3 for discussions on our method of energy accounting and of incorporating energy flows into the input-output model.

-36-

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China's Energy Strategy: Economic Structure, Technological Choices, and Energy Consumption
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Title Page iii
  • Contents vii
  • Tables and Figures ix
  • Preface xv
  • 1 - Introduction 1
  • Notes 11
  • 2 - Energy in China's Economy, 1981 and 1987 13
  • Notes 36
  • 3 - Accounting for Energy-Use Changes: A Structural Decomposition Analysis 39
  • Notes 94
  • 5 - Energy Effects of Production-Technology Changes 95
  • Notes 126
  • 6 - Energy Conservation in Action: A Case Study of the Iron and Steel Industry 129
  • Conclusion 158
  • Notes 161
  • 7 - Summary and Conclusion 163
  • APPENDICES 173
  • Bibliography 185
  • Index 199
  • About the Author 204
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