not appear to decline. But impacts from other spending (restaurants, shopping, etc.) would decline. The net effect could be negative!
Super Bowls and other mega-sporting events have received plenty of attention from sponsors and the media. Reports of huge impacts from such events are used as justification for municipal expenditures to keep or lure a team to an area, to build stadiums, or to make bids for future Olympic or NCAA games. One result is citizen complaints about inconveniences suffered when the event takes place. This study has taken a critical look at real-time impact analysis through the looking glass of historical, realized sales. These sales are found to be greatly overstated at best, and total fabrications at worst.
Investigator bias, data measurement error, changing production relationships, diminishing returns to both scale and variable inputs, and capacity constraints anywhere along the chain of sales relations lead to lower multipliers. Crowding out and price increases by input suppliers in response to higher levels of demand, and the tendency of suppliers to lower prices to stimulate sales when demand is weak lead to overestimates of net new sales due to the event. These characteristics alone would suggest that the estimated impact of a mega-sporting event will be lower than impact analysis predicts. When there are perfect complements to the event (like hotel rooms for visitors) with capacity constraints and/or suppliers who raise prices in the face of increased demand, impacts are reduced to zero. Today's Super Bowl visitor (the fox) drove away yesterday's and tomorrow's visitor (the hen), not with threats, but with a greater willingness to pay for space.