Hungary over the 1972-76 period. This does not necessarily imply, however, a rising prevalence of the same health conditions among the elderly population overall. Indeed, considerations of selectivity in mortality according to latent or underlying "frailty" (see, for example, Vaupel and Yashin, 1985, or Manton and Soldo, 1985) suggest that one consequence of rising mortality rates over time might be a reduced prevalence of physical debilitation within the population of surviving elderly.
Besides the questions of future changes in the structure and composition of the elderly population, in the patterns of kin available to the elderly for forming shared-household and care arrangements, and in the incidence of disabling health conditions, all of which the preceding analysis indicates are important determinants of living arrangements, we must also consider other factors outside the model. Two very important factors are the overall state of the housing supply in Hungary and the number of places in institutions. Together these factors will determine whether the family or the state--or possibly both--will be "squeezed" by the care needs of a growing older population in Hungary in the coming decades.
Ajkay Zoltan. 1983. Health and socio-political aspects of aging. In The demographic situation and problems of the old population in Hungary, ed. Andras Klinger. Collaborative Paper CP-83-55. Laxenburg: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
Az 1984 evi mikrocensus adatai (The 1984 microcensus data). 1985. Budapest: Hungarian Central Statistical Office.
Carlson Elwood, and Andras Klinger. 1987. Partners in life: Unmarried couples in Hungary. European Journal of Population 3:85-99.
Cseh-Szombathy László. 1983. The sociological and socio-political aspects of aging. In The demographic situation and problems of the old population in Hungary, ed. Andras Klinger. Collaborative Paper CP-83-55. Laxenburg: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
-----. 1987. Survival of kinship relations in the developed countries, with special attention to the role of these relations in the life of the aged. Paper prepared for the IUSSP Seminar on New Forms of Familial Life in MDC's. Vaucresson, France, 6-9 Oct. 1987.
Data of the 1984 Hungarian microcensus. 1986. Budapest: Hungarian Central Statistical Office.