The Oil Market in the 1980's: A Decade of Decline

By Siamack Shojai; Bernard S. Katz | Go to book overview

THE OIL MARKET
IN THE 1980s
_____ A Decade of Decline

Edited by SIAMACK SHOJAI and BERNARD S. KATZ

PRAEGER

New York Westport, Connecticut London

-iii-

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The Oil Market in the 1980's: A Decade of Decline
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Title Page iii
  • Contents vii
  • Tables ix
  • Preface xi
  • Introduction xiii
  • I OPEC and Non-OPEC Supplier Experience 1
  • 1: Falling Oil Prices and Exchange Rate Fluctuation 3
  • Conclusion 14
  • Notes 15
  • 2: A Theoretical Framework for Macroeconomic Modeling of OPEC Members 17
  • 3: OPEC Strategies for the Monopoly Oil Profits 23
  • CONCLUSIONS 38
  • Notes 38
  • 4: The Mexican Experience 41
  • 5: Fiscal Stress in Saudi Arabia: Budgetary Adjustments in an Era of Declining Oil Revenues 59
  • Conclusion 67
  • Notes 67
  • II The Oil Importers' Adjustment and Response 69
  • 6: Oil in the 1980s: An OECD Perspective 71
  • Notes 87
  • 7: Petroleum Prices and Economic Performance in the G-7 Countries 89
  • 8: World Oil Prices and Macroeconomic Activity in the OECD 103
  • Conclusion 113
  • Note 114
  • 9: The U.S. Oil Industry Response 115
  • Conclusion 125
  • APPENDIX 1: THE EXPLORATION MODEL 126
  • APPENDIX 1: THE EXPLORATION MODEL 127
  • APPENDIX 1: THE EXPLORATION MODEL 128
  • APPENDIX 1: THE EXPLORATION MODEL 129
  • 10: Changes in World Oil Prices, 1980-1988: A General Equilibrium Perspective 131
  • Conclusion 146
  • Notes 147
  • III Oil Prices and the LDCs 151
  • 11: Third World Debt and Oil Prices 153
  • 12: Changing Terms of Trade and the LDCs 161
  • 13: OPEC Aid to Less-Developed Countries 169
  • Conclusion 183
  • Notes 184
  • IV The Learning Curve 187
  • 14: Predicting the Price of Oil 189
  • Conclusion 204
  • Notes 204
  • 15: Futures Market for Crude Oil 207
  • Conclusion 218
  • Notes 218
  • 16: Measuring the Effects of Changing Oil Prices 221
  • Select Bibliography 233
  • Index 243
  • About the Editors and Contributors 257
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