The estimates of group-based voting behavior used in this chapter are similar to the results from the previous chapter. We present them in this appendix for the benefit of those readers who wish to follow the modelling procedures more closely. In the first two columns of Table 7.A1, we present the coefficients and standard errors for our preferred model of group-specific political alignments in presidential elections from 1960 through 1992. We take the preferred model from the previous chapter as our point of departure, and adopt Stanley and Niemi's procedure for calculating these predicted probabilities.27 That is, we calculate the expected probability for each individual respondent in the pooled NES dataset; the predicted group-specific probability for a given election is then the average of the predicted probabilities of all (individual) group members in that year. Note also that the first step of these calculations takes into account not only the main effects of year and group membership, but also their interaction (if these are present in the model) representing changes in that groups' political alignment. In the remaining columns of Table 7.A1, we thus present the predicted probabilities of favoring the Democratic candidate for each election.
Our interest in this chapter lies in using the predicted probabilities to calculate the (margin-dependant) impact of social groups on party coalitions, and we use the nine columns of predicted probabilities for the subsequent calculations presented in the text of the chapter itself.