Economic Transition in Russia and the New States of Eurasia

By Bartlomiej Kaminski | Go to book overview

Notes

This chapter draws on results of joint research and numerous discussions with Zhen-kun Wang and L. Alan Winters. I would like to thank Azita Amjadi for her help in processing transportation data.

1.
Except for Russia, which took over the former Soviet institutions. However, it had to establish customs border controls.
2.
This implies intensification of external links at the level of firms (as opposed to states) in agreement with comparative advantage. Its deeper manifestation would be expansion of intraindustry trade--this, however, depends also on the level of industrial development.
3.
See, for instance, Costas Michalopoulos and David G. Tarr, "Summary and Overview of Developments Since Independence," in Costas Michalopoulos and David Tarr, eds., Trade in the New Independent States ( Washington, DC: World Bank/UNDP); and John Williamson, Trade and Payments After Soviet Disintegration ( Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics, 1992).
4.
The statistical evidence available for two former CMEA members, Hungary and Poland, suggests that some redirection has occurred. See Bartlomiej Kaminski, "How the Market Transition Affected Export Performance in the Central European Economies," Policy Research Working Paper 1179 ( Washington, DC: World Bank, 1993).
5.
According to some estimates, the value of this aspect of trade increased in 1994, exceeding the 1991 level. Derived from data in Eurasia Economic Outlook, WEFA Group, Bala Cynwyd, PA, ( April 1995).
6.
The rise of the Baltic states as the major exporters from the former Soviet Union ( FSU) is more visible when contrasted with exports of other newly independent states, excluding Russia--their share in NIS exports, excluding Russia, rose from around 6 percent in 1990 to 44 percent in 1992 to 59 percent in 1993.
7.
For the application of a gravity model to measure the distortions in foreign trade of former centrally planned economies, see Bartlomiej Kaminski, Zhen-kun Wang, and L. Alan Winters , "Foreign Trade in the Transition: The International Environment and Domestic Policy," 20, in Studies in Economies in Transition Series ( Washington, DC: World Bank/UNDP, 1996).
8.
Tajikistan's better performance reflects a surge in chemical exports in 1994.
9.
See "List of Participants in the Foreign Economic Relations of the USSR." Vneshniaia Torgovliia, no. 6, June 1989.
10.
As a result of this limited liberalization of the foreign trade regime, exports and imports outside of foreign trade organizations started to increase rapidly in the last quarter of 1991. See Gazeta Bankowa ( Warsaw), no. 46, 27-23 November 1991, p. 32.
11.
For a discussion of the links between the macroeconomy and trade, see Kaminski Wang , and Winters, "Foreign Trade in the Transition," and Michalopoulos and Tarr, "Summary and Overview of Developments."
12.
Examples of this can be observed in several newly independent states (e.g., Georgia, Ukraine) that recently introduced stabilization cum liberalization programs but chose to maintain export controls through reference-price systems forcing exporters to register each transaction. Except for rent seeking, there is no economic explanation for keeping these controls.
13.
There are some indications that by the end of 1995 several other newly independent states, including Russia, Ukraine, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, may move to the second-generation foreign trade regime.
14.
There was one exception. For fiscal reasons, the Estonian government retained a

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