integration of Bosnian government and HZ-HB institutions and of the ABH and the HVO, have been fully implemented. 39
The degree to which Croatia develops in the direction of capitalist democracy hinges, in large part, on events in Bosnia and Herzegovina. While the Dayton Accords of December 1995 have put at least a temporary halt to the Bosnian war, the long-term future of Bosnia-Herzegovina remains a wholly open question. A continuation of Bosnian instability and Croatian entanglement in Bosnian affairs offers Tudjman a surrogate for the now lapsed issue of Croatia's occupied territories as a homogenizing factor in Croat politics. At the same time, he will be able to use Western pressure (to cooperate with the Bosnian government, to hand over indicted war criminals, and to democratize, among other issues) as further proof of the West's Croatophobia. However, a substantial period of Bosnian calm, coupled with the visible reconstruction of that country, will tend to erode these arguments for maintaining his own and the HDZ's monopoly over the political spectrum, arguments that depend on perceived threats to the survival and independence of the Croatian state. The end of the Bosnian war may well presage the end, at least in its present form, of Tudjman's personal mastery of Croatian politics.