# Military Deterrence in History: A Pilot Cross-Historical Survey

By Raoul Naroll; Vern L. Bullough et al. | Go to book overview

CHAPTER 24
CAN WE TRUST OUR FINDINGS?

by Raoul Naroll

DETERRENCE CORRELATIONS IN GENERAL

THE MAIN OBJECT of this pilot study has been to test the feasibility of a cross-historical survey of factors attending War Frequency and Territorial Gain. Our chief focus has been on military deterrence. Here we found no reason to believe that military preparations tended to make wars less likely. How confident can we be of this finding? In effect, what is the lower limit we can reasonably expect to find in the universe of the correlations between War Frequency (Months of War) on one hand, and our seven deterrence variables (Defensive Stance, Strength of Armed Forces, Mobility of Armed Forces, Quality of Armed Forces, Prestige of Armed Forces, Defensive Fortifications and Defensive Alliances) on the other hand?

For this purpose we can use the method of confidence intervals ( Blalock 1960:305-9). The user of this method states the risk of error he is willing to assume. Given such a level of confidence, the method designates the limits or boundaries wherein the true correlation can be expected to lie. The mathematics of the method assumes random sampling; when samples depart from randomness they must also reckon with the possibility that sampling bias alters these limits.

We are content for our present purpose to accept a risk of five percent. Table 24-1 shows the lower limits of the seven deterrence correlations. Column C shows these limits as computed from the present sample. But the length of the confidence interval between the observed correlation and the limits is a simple function of the sample size. Column D shows the lower limits at the 95% level of confidence which the correlations we observed would enjoy

-344-

If you are trying to select text to create highlights or citations, remember that you must now click or tap on the first word, and then click or tap on the last word.
One moment ...
Default project is now your active project.
Project items
Notes

#### Cited page

Style
Citations are available only to our active members.
Buy instant access to cite pages or passages in MLA 8, MLA 7, APA and Chicago citation styles.

(Einhorn, 1992, p. 25)

(Einhorn 25)

(Einhorn 25)

1. Lois J. Einhorn, Abraham Lincoln, the Orator: Penetrating the Lincoln Legend (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992), 25, http://www.questia.com/read/27419298.

#### Cited page

Military Deterrence in History: A Pilot Cross-Historical Survey

Settings

#### Settings

Typeface
Text size Reset View mode
Search within

Look up

#### Look up a word

• Dictionary
• Thesaurus
Please submit a word or phrase above.

Why can't I print more than one page at a time?

Help
Full screen
Items saved from this book
• Bookmarks
• Highlights & Notes
• Citations
/ 418

### How to highlight and cite specific passages

1. Click or tap the first word you want to select.
2. Click or tap the last word you want to select, and you’ll see everything in between get selected.
3. You’ll then get a menu of options like creating a highlight or a citation from that passage of text.

## Cited passage

Style
Citations are available only to our active members.
Buy instant access to cite pages or passages in MLA 8, MLA 7, APA and Chicago citation styles.

"Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn, 1992, p. 25).

"Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn 25)

"Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn 25)

"Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences."1

1. Lois J. Einhorn, Abraham Lincoln, the Orator: Penetrating the Lincoln Legend (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992), 25, http://www.questia.com/read/27419298.

## Thanks for trying Questia!

Please continue trying out our research tools, but please note, full functionality is available only to our active members.

Your work will be lost once you leave this Web page.