Future Energy Growth in Latin America
This chapter focuses on the region's future energy growth, and builds on the review of the current situation of Latin American energy presented in Chapter 1 and the detailed examination of the energy sector in ten countries in Chapters 2 through 11. The forecast of the regional energy growth is primarily based on the growth projections for individual countries detailed in Chapters 2 to 11, combined with the overall pattern of the region's development in the past and at the present time.
The first section of this chapter illustrates the prospects for Latin America's primary energy supply with each of the major energy fuels being examined. The second section begins with a short discussion of the determinants for energy consumption growth and then forecasts the primary energy consumption by the year 2000. The changes in energy intensity and per capita primary energy consumption for selected Latin American countries are examined in the third section. Given the importance of the region's future oil product consumption and natural gas use in Latin America's energy balance, the fourth and fifth sections further discuss the international trade implications of the future consumption patterns. Finally, concluding remarks on Latin America's future energy growth and a short summary of major issues in this book are given in the last section.
While Latin America has substantial potential to increase its energy consumption during the rest of the 1990s, there are many uncertainties associated with the region's energy development that will greatly influence the outcome. Differences in approach and methodology when evaluating these uncertainties will contribute to the wide range of forecasts of the region's oil, gas, coal, and