ment in the peace and election process prior to 1992, the United Nations has invested considerably in Angola, both politically and in the form of development aid (see Chapter 4). However, the UN involvement has not led to lasting peace and reconstruction, and there is growing international impatience with its role. Whereas development aid is likely to continue at its present level for some time, there is a real possibility that the United Nations will withdraw all or most of its peacekeeping forces in early 1997.
Turning to economic development, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are in the process of becoming more important, despite the fact that Angola remains one of the few African states not to have formalized its relations with the two institutions. The experience of other countries in similar positions indicates that the implications of conditionality and structural adjustment programs will be far-reaching. As for political developments, African organizations are likely to take on an increasingly important role. It has already been mentioned that the OAU and SADC have come out in strong support of the Angolan government and the peace process. The recently established Community of Portuguese-Speaking Countries (Comunidade dos Paises de Lingua Portuguesa [CPLP]) is also likely to play an active political role.27
Perhaps the most dramatic change involves South Africa, particularly after the election of a new South African government in April 1994. South Africa has established its diplomatic representation (officially, a "common interests office") in Luanda and has increasing economic interests in the country. As an irony of history, South Africa has also been involved in supporting the Angolan army through the mercenary company Executive Outcomes and in locating and removing land mines (many of which, one must assume, were laid there by the SADF itself). For Angola, constructive relations with South Africa will be vital for both political and economic development.28
In addition to South Africa, Portugal and Brazil continue to have strong interests in Angola. They are politically involved both bilaterally and through the CPLP, are making considerable investments in the country, and are among Angola's most important trading partners. Some other international actors (like the European Union, South Korea, Japan, and France) will continue to pursue economic interests in Angola, but beyond this, there are clear signs of fatigue and pessimism in the relations between Angola and foreign countries and institutions. Constructive international relations with Angola will be important in international affairs--not least for the development of the southern African region--and will be considered again in regard to possible development scenarios for Angola in Chapter 6.