Midterm: The Elections of 1994 in Context

By Philip A. Klinkner | Go to book overview

who care about reelection believe they would be hindered more by their party's falling short on the contract or by voting to inflict the pain required when enacting key parts of the contract. For students of the electoral connection, the 104th should turn out to be the most interesting Congress in years.


NOTES
1.
Bernard Sanders of Vermont, the lone independent, survived.
2.
See Paul Richter, "It Just Seems We're Worse Off," Los Angeles Times (January 26) 1995, A25.
3.
The 1988 district presidential vote was recomputed for each district to adjust for redistricting after 1990; the data are from Barone and Ujifusa ( 1993).
4.
New York Times, November 13, 1994.
5.
According to a survey sponsored by the Christian Coalition, 33 percent of the 1994 voters were "religious conservatives," up from 24 percent in 1992 and 18 percent in 1988 ( Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, November 19, 1994, 3364); in the 1994 exit poll, 38 percent identified themselves as "conservatives," compared with 30 percent in 1992 ( Hotline, November 12, 1994).
6.
The swing is defined as the change in the division of the two-party House vote in the district from 1992 to 1994.
7.
I omitted elections in years ending in 2 from these comparisons because of redistricting.
8.
Gelman and King estimate an unbiased measure of the incumbency advantage by regressing the Democrats' share of the two-party vote on the Democrats' vote in the previous election, the party holding the seat, and incumbency (which takes a value of 1 if the Democrat is the incumbent, -1 if the Republican is the incumbent, and 0 if the seat is open). The coefficient of the incumbency variable estimates the value (in percentage of votes) of incumbency for the election year ( Gelman and King, 1990).
9.
Initially, I also included the Brady bill (a gun control measure), but it provided no additional explanatory punch so I excluded it. I substituted Congressional Quarterly's presidential support score (averaged for 1993 and 1994) for the key vote index in the following reported regression analyses ( Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, December 18, 1993, 3476-78; Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, December 31, 1994, 3656-57), but it had much less explanatory power than this three-vote index.
10.
Against incumbent Democrats in Republican-leaning districts, 49 percent (19 of 39) of the Republican challengers who spent in excess of $300,000 won, whereas only 6 percent (2 of 32) of the challengers who spent less than this sum managed to defeat incumbents. If analysis is further confined to Democratic incumbents who supported the Clinton administration on at least two of the three key votes, the respective percentages are 52 percent (14 of 27) and 13 percent (2 of 15).

-20-

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Midterm: The Elections of 1994 in Context
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Transforming American Politics ii
  • Forthcoming Titles iii
  • Title Page v
  • Contents vii
  • Foreword ix
  • Acknowledgments xi
  • 1: The 1994 House Elections in Perspective 1
  • Notes 20
  • 2: Eight More in '94: The Republican Takeover of the Senate 21
  • Notes 45
  • 3: "Permanent Minority" No More: House Republicans in 1994 47
  • Notes 60
  • 4: Court and Country in American Politics: The Democratic Party and the 1994 Election 61
  • Notes 78
  • 5: Money in the 1994 Elections and Beyond 81
  • Conclusion 94
  • 6: The 1994 Electoral Aftershock: Dealignment Or Realignment in the South 99
  • Conclusion 110
  • 7: The Politics of Pragmatism: The Christian Right and the 1994 Elections 115
  • 8: In Search of the Angry White Male: Gender, Race, and Issues in the 1994 Elections 125
  • Notes 136
  • 9: Re-Exploring the Weak-Challenger Hypothesis: The 1994 Candidate Pools 137
  • Notes 153
  • 10: Innovative Midterm Elections 157
  • Notes 170
  • References 171
  • About the Book 183
  • About the Editor and Contributors 185
  • Index 189
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