This study is one of a number done by academic and other research institutions for the Department of State as part of the Department's external research program. These studies are designed to supplement the Department's own in-house research capabilities and provide independent, expert views to policy officers and analysts on key questions with important policy implications.
This study was proposed by the Office of Economic Research and Analysis in the Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) and developed in discussions with officers in several Department bureaus. It was monitored by Warren H. Reynolds, Senior Program Officer in the Bureau of Intelligence and Research, with the assistance of an interagency working group, which provided thoughtful critiques of several drafts. However, the views and conclusions contained in this study are those of the authors, and should not be interpreted as representing the official opinion or policy of the Department of State.