The Southern Strategy Revisited: Republican Top-Down Advancement in the South

By Joseph A. Aistrup | Go to book overview

Appendix 4
Pool Time-Series Design

In a pooled time-series design such as this, it is necessary to control for base-level effects of the independent variables to properly assess whether changes in the independent variables lead to changes in Republican subnational advancement ( Miethe, Hughes, and McDowall 1991; Kessler and Greenberg 1981). Before explaining why this is the case, it is helpful to first examine the basic form of the model that is estimated for these pooled time-series analyses:
Yt = a + b1Yt-1 + b2Xt-1 + b3(Xt-Xt-1 + . . .+e (A4.1)

This model includes a lagged endogenous variable to assess the changes in Republican advancement and to allow the effects of the independent variables to be distributed over multiple time points ( Miethe et al. 1991, 1008). From a theoretical point of view, the lagged form of Republican advancement represents the inverse of Democratic incumbency. When the proportion of Democratic incumbents is high, the lagged form of Republican advancement is low. Thus, controlling for prior Republican advancement has a similar effect in the equation as including a control for Democratic incumbency. Though the model produces distinct estimates for each four-year time period for the independent variables, it also specifies each independent variable in its lagged form to estimate each independent variable's base level effects. The base level effect represents the historical relationship between the independent and dependent variable. Inclusion of the lagged form of the independent variable is necessary to permit a more accurate assessment of the change component (Xt-Xt-1). Thus, to assess the changes in Republican subnational advancement as a function of changes in white Democratic support for president, governor, and senator, the model first controls for the base-level effects of the rela-

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The Southern Strategy Revisited: Republican Top-Down Advancement in the South
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Title Page iii
  • Contents vii
  • Figures, Tables, and Maps viii
  • Acknowledgments xi
  • Introduction 1
  • Section 1 3
  • Chapter 1 Seeds of Change 5
  • Chapter 2 the Rhetoric of the Southem Strategy 18
  • Chapter 3: Colonizing the South 65
  • Chapter 4: Contesting and Winning Elections 90
  • Section 2 111
  • Chapter 5: Ideology 113
  • Chapter 6 Intraparty Coalitional Politics: the Coleman Paradox 143
  • Chapter 7 the Redistricting Explanation 167
  • Chapter 8: Democratic Incumbency 183
  • Chapter 9: Top-Down Advancement 211
  • Chapter 10 the Southern Strategy and Top-Down Advancement: Conclusion 243
  • Appendix 1 Interviews 249
  • Appendix 2 Demographic Clusters 251
  • Appendix 4 Pool Time-Series Design 258
  • Appendix 5 the Measurement of Republican Subnational Advancement 260
  • Notes 263
  • Bibliography 270
  • Index 287
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