to the United States will always be proportionately less than the number
of immigrants arriving.
If the process of economic development in the less-developed nations
does not substantially reduce the propensities to immigrate to the United States within the next thirty years, the following three scenarios
for the future are possible. First, there would be no change in the laws
concerning legal immigration, but draconian measures would be used
successfully to curb illegal immigration. Accordingly, total net immigration to the United States, both legal and illegal, would remain at its current level. Second, the United States would not change either its immigration laws or the ways in which it attempted to enforce these laws. As a
consequence, the net flow of undocumented immigrants to the United
States would rise far above its current level. Third, the United States
would change its immigration laws so that a much higher proportion of
the persons who most want to immigrate to the United States could do
so legally. In this case the net flow of illegal immigration would perhaps
decline to a very low level, and total net immigration might be smaller
than in the second scenario.
The latest projection is found in United Nations, Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis, World Population Prospects,
the 1992 Revision ( New York: United Nations, 1993).
See Warren S. Thompson, Population and Peace in the Pacific ( Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1946), pp. 22-35; C. P. Blacker, "Stages in Population Growth," Eugenics Review, Vol. 39, No. 3 ( October 1947), pp. 88-102; Kingsley Davis
, Human Society ( New York: Macmillan, 1949), pp. 603-608; and Frank W. Notestein
, "The Economics of Population and Food Supplies," in Proceedings
of the Eighth International Conference of Agricultural Economists ( London: Oxford University Press, 1953), pp. 15-31.
David M. Heer, Society and Population, 2d ed. (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1975), pp. 94-96.
Joseph J. Spengler, "Values and Fertility Analysis," Demography, Vol. 3,
No. 1 ( 1966), pp. 109-130.
Everett S. Lee, "A Theory of Migration," Demography, Vol. 3, No. 1 ( 1966),
For an excellent example of such research, see Parker Frisbie, "Illegal Migration from Mexico to the United States: A Longitudinal Analysis," International Migration Review Vol. 9, No. 1 ( 1975), pp. 3-13.
World Bank, World Development Report 1993 ( New York: Oxford University
Press, 1993), pp. 296-297.
John S. MacDonald and
Leatrice D. MacDonald, "Chain Migration, Ethnic
Neighborhood Formation, and Social Networks," Milbank Memorial Fund
Quarterly, Vol. 52, No. 1 ( January 1964), pp. 82-97.