El Niño, 1997-1998: The Climate Event of the Century

By Stanley A. Changnon | Go to book overview

utilities in timing their natural gas purchases produced huge benefits for consumers (see chapter 6).

Finding 6: Use of accurate seasonal forecasts yields largely positive outcomes . In today's information age, NOAA needs to exploit these findings when future forecast opportunities (ENSO conditions) exist to alert impacted sectors that can either minimize losses or maximize profit by using the forecast information. They also need to explain when the skill levels are lower and present the probabilities associated with the outcomes predicted.


REFERENCES

Brown, B. G., and Murphy. A. H. 1987. The Potential Value of Climate Forecasts to the Natural Gas Industry in the United States. SCIL Report 87-2. Corvallis. OR: Oregon State University.

Brown, B. G., Katz, R. W., and Murphy. A. H. 1986. "On the economic value of seasonal precipitation forecasts: The fallowing/planting problem". Bulletin Amer. Meteor. Soc., 67, 833-841.

Changnon, D. 1998. Design and test of a "hands-on" applied climate course in an undergraduate meteorology program. Bulletin Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 79-84.

Changnon. D., Creech. T., Marsili, N., Murrell, W., and Saxinger. M. 1999. "Interactions with a weather-sensitive decision maker: A case study incorporating ENSO information into a strategy for purchasing natural gas". Bulletin Amer. Meteor. Sock., 80, 1117-1126.

Changnon. S. A. 1982. Possible uses of long-range weather outlooks in water resources. Proc. International Sympositim on Hydrometeorology. Denver. CO: American Water Resources Association, 231-234.

-----. 1991. Applied climatology: Atmospheric sciences biggest success story faces major new challenges. Preprints Seventh Conference on Applied Climatology. Boston: American Meteorological Society, 1-3.

-----. 1992. "Contents of climate predictions desired by agricultural decision makers". J.Appl. Meteor., 31, 1488-1491.

-----. 1997. Assessment of Uses and Values of the New Climate Forecasts. CRR-43. Mahomet. IL: Changnon Climatologist.

Changnon. S. A., and Changnon. J. M. 1990. "Use of climatological data in weather insurance". J. Climate, 3, 568-575.

Changnon. S. A., Changnon, J., and Changnon, D. 1995. "Uses and applications of climate forecasts for power utilities". Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76, 711-720.

Changnon, S. A., Sonka. S. T., and Hofing. S. 1988. "Assessing climate information use in agribusiness. Part I: Actual and potential use and impediments to usage". J. Climate. I. 757-765.

Glantz. M. 1987. "Politics, forecasts, and forecasting: Forecasts are the answer but what is the question?" In Policy Aspects of Climate Forecasting. Washington, DC: Resources for the Future, 81-96.

Pfaff. A., Broad. K., and Glantz. M. H. 1999. Who benefits from climate forecasts? Nature, 397, 645-646.

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El Niño, 1997-1998: The Climate Event of the Century
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Title Page iii
  • Preface vii
  • Acknowledgments ix
  • Contents xi
  • Abbreviations xiii
  • Contributors xv
  • 1 - What Made El NiñO 1997-1998 Famous? 3
  • References 26
  • 2 - Causes, Predictions, and Outcomes of El NiñO 1997-1998 28
  • References 47
  • 3 - Was El NiñO a Weather Metaphor--A Signal for Global Warming? 49
  • Notes 67
  • References 67
  • 4 - The Scientific Issues Associated with El NiñO 1997-1998 68
  • Appendix 103
  • References 105
  • 5 - Who Used and Benefited from the El NiñO Forecasts? 109
  • References 134
  • 6 - Impacts of El NiñO's Weather 136
  • References 166
  • 7 - Policy Responses to El NiñO 1997-1998 172
  • References 193
  • 8 - Summary Surprises, Lessons Learned, and the Legacy of El NiñO 1997-1998 197
  • References 209
  • Index 211
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