Advances in Input-Output Analysis: Technology, Planning, and Development

By William Peterson | Go to book overview

TABLE 12.6 Optimum consumption in 1977 (1000 million 1977 zlotys) (second set of
assumptions, see text)
Criterion: Maximum
Balance of Trade
Criterion: Maximum
Personal Consumption
Variant of ESLESb ParametersActual
Consump-
tion,
1977
Gooda123123
Food 566.0 645.7 509.0 566.0 645.2 508.2 560.7
Clothing 168.2 118.1 157.4 168.2 118.4 170.9 151.7
Housing 95.3 95.3 96.6 95.3 95.3 96.4 111.4
Furniture 73.8 32.8 68.1 73.8 32.8 72.1 47.3
Health 14.6 66.6 40.0 14.8 101.4 88.6 35.5
Transport 157.5 102.5 88.3 157.5 137.4 182.6 94.0
Rest 148.0 90.9 145.8 148.0 90.9 145.5 91.2
Total 1223.4 1152.4 1105.3 1223.5 1221.4 1264.4 1091.8
aSee text for items included in each category.
bExtended linear expenditure system.

real level of consumption. However if one goes too far in this direction the result may be another episode of social unrest.

In the future we shall be extending the scope of the alternative scenarios so as to be able to map comprehensively the economy's responses to various price and other conditions. Also, we plan to repeat the whole study using data for more recent years, The whole study seems to us to be of the utmost practical importance. For, as the statistics for Poland's economic development since 1977 prove, government actions on prices and on production and consumption patterns have taken the opposite course to that which we have found rational. There have been relative increases in the prices of food with the prices of other, less well-supplied, goods failing behind. As far as the reallocation of resources is concerned, we have witnessed a major shift of all resources including the labor force from manufacturing and housing to the primary sectors. To us, therefore, it is not surprising that since 1978 the Polish economy has been displaying a major recession in production and consumption, coupled with hyperinflationary tendencies, and acute and deteriorating consumer market disequilibrium.


ACKNOWLEDGMENT

We thank Bozena Lopuch for programming work and computer calculations.


NOTE
1.
In a static I-O analysis, housing construction--an activity directly linked to the fulfilment of current consumer needs--is classified as capital formation. Without the relationship (5) it may appear incorrectly that a significant growth in the consumption of housing is possible without the construction of any new homes. Unfortunately this is not so. The specific numbers ƒ + ̄12, q + ̄3, α, δ appearing in (5) have been established in a separate study.

-182-

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