assumptions, see text)
Balance of Trade
|Variant of ESLESb Parameters||Actual|
|aSee text for items included in each category.|
|bExtended linear expenditure system.|
real level of consumption. However if one goes too far in this direction the result may be another episode of social unrest.
In the future we shall be extending the scope of the alternative scenarios so as to be able to map comprehensively the economy's responses to various price and other conditions. Also, we plan to repeat the whole study using data for more recent years, The whole study seems to us to be of the utmost practical importance. For, as the statistics for Poland's economic development since 1977 prove, government actions on prices and on production and consumption patterns have taken the opposite course to that which we have found rational. There have been relative increases in the prices of food with the prices of other, less well-supplied, goods failing behind. As far as the reallocation of resources is concerned, we have witnessed a major shift of all resources including the labor force from manufacturing and housing to the primary sectors. To us, therefore, it is not surprising that since 1978 the Polish economy has been displaying a major recession in production and consumption, coupled with hyperinflationary tendencies, and acute and deteriorating consumer market disequilibrium.
We thank Bozena Lopuch for programming work and computer calculations.