This outcome greatly depends on our ability to raise the domestic
savings rate and to attract foreign savings. Much also depends on the
speed with which substitutes in production and consumption can be developed, in particular on the future of the coal and nuclear industries in
this country. All these factors can be significantly influenced by policy.
If they are managed well, with a little luck a reasonable degree of economic growth could resume again after a period of transition. Otherwise, 1979 could signal the beginning of an era of economic stagnation.It must be remembered that this scenario is based on a perception
of the future formed in the last few months. Events appear to be changing so rapidly that yet other scenarios are likely to be appropriate in
another few months. The best we can do is to reemphasize the point
made in chapter 1, that studies such as this must be repeated many times,
and that what is required is an ongoing process aimed at continually improving our ability to clarify the longer-run consequences of current
actions.
References
| Ridker, Ronald G., William D. Watson, Jr., and Adele Shapanka. 1977. "Economic, Energy, and Environmental Consequences of Alternative Energy Regimes: An Application of the RFF/SEAS Modeling System," in Charles J. Hitch, ed., Modeling Energy-Economy Interactions: Five Approaches ( Washington, D.C., Resources for the Future). | |
| Schurr, Sam H., Joel Darmstadter, William Ramsay, Harry Perry, and Milton Russell . 1979. Energy in America's Future: The Choices Before Us ( Baltimore, Md., Johns Hopkins University Press for Resources for the Future). |
-459-
