|In this chapter|
|The Full-blown Analysis|
|Finding the Saints Among the Sinners|
|The Quick and Dirty Precinct Analysis|
|When Precinct Analysis Isn't Enough|
|Finding the Likely Voter|
If you intend to canvass or run a get-out-the-vote (GOTV) effort, you must do a voter precinct analysis. You will need a precinct analysis to determine where best to invest your money, time, and especially your canvassing efforts. Unlike some campaign activities, precinct analysis is something that can be done months ahead of the election. Take advantage of this and get it out of the way. If you have money, you may hire a voter contact service to do it for you. If not, read this chapter carefully. Twice.
Precinct analysis is based on the premise that people who think and vote alike live near each other. Precinct analysis looks for voting trends, specifically precinct-by-precinct voting trends, to give the campaign a geographic location of your core supporters. It will tell you where to find high support and low voter turnout for similar candidates or causes in past elections so that your canvassing efforts will activate likely support. This is crucial. You want to invest most of your effort in those high-support, low-turnout areas to get out your vote.
In every race, there are two kinds of voters: those with their minds made up and those who are either undecided or don't care. For our purposes we divide the first category into two groups, the sinners and the saints, and focus on the remaining group as the saveables.
"Aim at the souls|
that can be
|-- Bill Meulemans|