The Campaign Manager: Running and Winning Local Elections

By Catherine M. Shaw | Go to book overview

6 Precinct Analysis
The Sinners, the Saints, and the Saveables
In this chapter
The Full-blown Analysis
Finding the Saints Among the Sinners
The Quick and Dirty Precinct Analysis
When Precinct Analysis Isn't Enough
Finding the Likely Voter

If you intend to canvass or run a get-out-the-vote (GOTV) effort, you must do a voter precinct analysis. You will need a precinct analysis to determine where best to invest your money, time, and especially your canvassing efforts. Unlike some campaign activities, precinct analysis is something that can be done months ahead of the election. Take advantage of this and get it out of the way. If you have money, you may hire a voter contact service to do it for you. If not, read this chapter carefully. Twice.

Precinct analysis is based on the premise that people who think and vote alike live near each other. Precinct analysis looks for voting trends, specifically precinct-by-precinct voting trends, to give the campaign a geographic location of your core supporters. It will tell you where to find high support and low voter turnout for similar candidates or causes in past elections so that your canvassing efforts will activate likely support. This is crucial. You want to invest most of your effort in those high-support, low-turnout areas to get out your vote.

In every race, there are two kinds of voters: those with their minds made up and those who are either undecided or don't care. For our purposes we divide the first category into two groups, the sinners and the saints, and focus on the remaining group as the saveables.

"Aim at the souls
that can be
saved."
-- Bill Meulemans

-99-

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The Campaign Manager: Running and Winning Local Elections
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Title Page iii
  • Contents vii
  • Tables and Illustrations xi
  • Preface xv
  • How to Use This Handbook 1
  • 1 - The Campaign Team 5
  • 2 - The Campaign Brochure. 17
  • 3 - The Volunteer Organization 35
  • 4 - Fund-Raising 49
  • 5 - Lawn Signs 91
  • 6 - Precinct Analysis 99
  • 7 - Canvassing 125
  • 8 - Getting-Out-The-Vote (Gotv) 137
  • 9 - Direct Mail 159
  • 10 - Media 171
  • 11 - The Candidate 205
  • 12 - The Issue-Based Campaign 235
  • 13 - The Campaign Flowchart 249
  • 14 - After the Ball 255
  • Afterword 257
  • Appendix 1 - Forms for Photocopying 259
  • Appendix 2 - The State Initiative and Referendum Process 271
  • Appendix 3 - Directory of Campaign Web Sites and Other Resources 277
  • Index 281
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