See, for example, Williamson ( 1985, chap. 8)
sources there cited. These efforts at explanation carry an evident
danger of functionalism -- because the institution arose, it must have
been more efficient -- but the danger can be, and I think in the literature
cited here has been, successfully resisted.
Demonstrating such effects, of course, proves nothing
about state autonomy. If, for example, PR leads to more stable
government but itself is determined by some aspect of civil or
international society, institutions still have little independent effect.
58. William Nordhaus ( 1975)
had originally asserted that
democratic governments stimulated the economy before an election, and
often depressed demand immediately after, resulting in economic
perturbations that were at best unhelpful to long-term economic growth.
The most influential statement of the hypothesis was in Edward Tufte
. Valerie Bunce ( 1980)
subsequently contended that the Soviet
and East European governments also stimulated consumer-goods output
to win support for new leaders immediately after a change of power.
On closer inspection, as Alt and
Chrystal ( 1983, chap. 5)
their pioneering and far-ranging textbook on Political Economics,
evidence for these plausible hypotheses was almost wholly lacking for
the democratic states; and Philip Roeder ( 1985)
cast similar doubt on Bunce's assertions.
In parliamentary systems where a single party held a
majority throughout the period of analysis, real disposable income
increased in 78% of the election years but in only 39% of the non-
election years; in systems with strong presidencies, the respective
figures were 71% for election years, 47% for years without an election.
In no other category of systems did the difference between election and
non-election years exceed 10% ( Powell 1982, 210)
63. Gourevitch ( 1979)
argued that separatist sentiment was
likeliest to arise in regions that were economically dynamic but
One may of course quibble about whether the conflict in
Nor, hem Ireland is ethnic. The distinct ancestry of the two groups (the
Protestants having originally been Scottish and English settlers) supports
an affirmative answer. See the incisive discussion of the larger
definitional issue in Horowitz ( 1985, chap. 1, esp. 41ff)
. On the
peculiar situation of settler elites, see Ian Lustick ( 1985)
As early as 1968, John Armstrong called attention to the
advanced educational and occupational status of the Armenian
population of the USSR: 94 of every 10,000 were full-time students in
higher education (among Russians, the figure was 90; among
Azerbaijanis, 75); 43 of every 10,000 were "scientific workers"
(Russians, 33; Azerbaijanis, 24); and 30 in every 1000 were "specialists
with higher education" (Russians, 21; Azerbaijanis, 18). Armstrong
went on to note that, "like all mobilized diasporas, the Armenians
arouse resentment....the Azerbaijanis and some other Turkic groups
have a tradition of bitter animosity to Armenians" ( Armstrong 1990,
25, 27, 60).
71. Laitin ( 1991, 162)
notes that the Estonian national
movement "was propelled...[in part] by the expectation of rapid growth
under capitalism in an independent state."
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