On Disarmament: The Role of Conventional Arms Control in National Security Strategy

By William F. Burns; Ralph A. Hallenbeck et al. | Go to book overview

Senator Nunn and former Ambassador Jonathan Dean have both proposed reductions to 50 percent of NATO's current strength. Many other analysts also seek what is becoming a very popular 50 percent figure, since it seems to rhyme with START reductions. Most recently, General Andrew Goodpaster, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) and current chairman of the Atlantic Council, has published the paper "Gorbachev and the Future of East-West Security: A Response for the Mid-Term," in which he recommends strengthening the Western European Union (WEU) and then seeking parity in CFE to no more than 50 percent of present NATO strength.

This "50 Percent Club" of distinguished relevant actors is going to impact on U.S. and European publics as the CFE talks continue. Colonel Hallenbeck, in a quick analysis of General Goodpaster's paper, sets the tone for the military response to 50 percent reductions:

Such deep reductions would require the abandonment of forward defense and a shift to a "force-on-force" defense which could entail an initial deep Pact penetration of FRG territory in wartime. This shift in strategy would seriously undercut the utility to the FRG of its association with NATO. Indeed, a force-on-force strategy could actually be destabilizing because it would place a high premium on preemptive attack and it would encourage NATO and the Warsaw Pact to field defensive forces with a very high counter-offensive potential.11

The key to determining the answer to "how low can we go" does not lie in the selection of a post-CFE strategy and alternative defense plan, but in ultimate political solutions to German reunification.


NOTES
1.
The selection of issues to be discussed was originally determined by contributing authors Michael F. Altfeld, John F. Scott, Regina Gaillard, and David E. Shaver while preparing How to Think about Conventional Arms Control: A Framework, published by the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI), June 24, 1988. The study team framed the issues from numerous newspaper articles, periodicals, political speeches, and from unclassified discussion in Department of Defense classified literature. The updated version of the issues stems from this initial research in October 1987 to the present.
2.
David E. Shaver, Force Structures: The United States and Europe in the Coming Decade, Carlisle Barracks, Pa: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, June 12, 1989, pp. 7-8.
4.
SSI, How to Think about Conventional Arms Control, p. 80.
5.
Shaver, Force Structure, p. 13.
7.
SSI, How to Think about Conventional Arms Control, pp. 35-63.
8.
See Appendix A for a full presentation of the CFE Mandate.
9.
See Chapter 6 for an all-inclusive look at current negotiations.

-69-

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On Disarmament: The Role of Conventional Arms Control in National Security Strategy
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Title Page iii
  • Contents vii
  • Figures, Maps, and Tables ix
  • Foreword xi
  • 1- Background 1
  • Notes 15
  • 2- Objectives 19
  • Notes 37
  • 3- Procedures 39
  • From Issues to Policies: the Nato High Level Task Force 47
  • From Issues to Policies: the Nato High Level Task Force 50
  • 4- Issues 53
  • Notes 69
  • 5- Definitional Disarmament 71
  • Notes 76
  • 6- Current Cfe Negotiations 79
  • Notes 106
  • 7- Verification 109
  • 8- Current Csbm Negotiations 121
  • Notes 128
  • 9- Future Environment 129
  • Conclusion 138
  • Conclusion 139
  • 10- Alternative Defenses 143
  • Assessing Proposals for Deep Reductions And Defensive Restructuring Following Cfe 154
  • Assessing Proposals for Deep Reductions And Defensive Restructuring Following Cfe 164
  • 11- Risks, Results, and Reflections 167
  • Notes 182
  • Appendix A: Mandate for Negotiation On Conventional Armed Forces in Europe 183
  • Appendix B: Nato Chapter One 189
  • Appendix C: Nato Chapter Two 193
  • Appendix D: Nato Chapter Three 197
  • Appendix E: Western Csbm Proposal 205
  • Glossary 213
  • Bibliography 217
  • Index 223
  • About the Editors and Contributors 227
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