In the following chapter we will discuss the future environment to bound the role of conventional arms control in national security strategy. To this point we have presented the significant background, objectives, procedures, issues, definitions, and current negotiations in order to prepare the reader for a more academic discussion of "where are we going" in the post-CFE 1990s.
Since the United States and its major NATO Alliance partners have relied heavily on a threat-driven strategy to support military planning, programming and budgeting, the diminishing threat (perception) may logically lead to diminishing military budgets. This in turn leads to diminishing force structure, and the budget spiral continues downward unabated as the threat continues to diminish.1
The movement from a threat-driven strategy to a resource-driven strategy has already occurred. Military planners are shifting from worst case global scenarios to multiple, lower-case scenarios, which are more compatible with lower-case budgets and, perhaps, more realistic in application. Of what will this kind of an environment consist? And what can we do now to prepare for this changing national security environment?
The following section, "After Containment: International Changes through a Nonauthoritarian Looking Glass," was written for and presented at the International Studies Association meeting in London on March 29, 1989. The author, Dr. Regina Gaillard, prepared this analysis, prior to the President's "beyond containment" series of speeches, for a panel on "East-West-South Relations into the 1990s: Chaos, Conflict, Containment, or Cooperation?" Put on your thinking cap to grasp this nonauthoritarian world environment envisioned by the contributing author. The thoughts presented herein unlock the mystery of the world