On Disarmament: The Role of Conventional Arms Control in National Security Strategy

By William F. Burns; Ralph A. Hallenbeck et al. | Go to book overview

9
Future Environment

In the following chapter we will discuss the future environment to bound the role of conventional arms control in national security strategy. To this point we have presented the significant background, objectives, procedures, issues, definitions, and current negotiations in order to prepare the reader for a more academic discussion of "where are we going" in the post-CFE 1990s.


ON STRATEGY

Since the United States and its major NATO Alliance partners have relied heavily on a threat-driven strategy to support military planning, programming and budgeting, the diminishing threat (perception) may logically lead to diminishing military budgets. This in turn leads to diminishing force structure, and the budget spiral continues downward unabated as the threat continues to diminish.1

The movement from a threat-driven strategy to a resource-driven strategy has already occurred. Military planners are shifting from worst case global scenarios to multiple, lower-case scenarios, which are more compatible with lower-case budgets and, perhaps, more realistic in application. Of what will this kind of an environment consist? And what can we do now to prepare for this changing national security environment?

The following section, "After Containment: International Changes through a Nonauthoritarian Looking Glass," was written for and presented at the International Studies Association meeting in London on March 29, 1989. The author, Dr. Regina Gaillard, prepared this analysis, prior to the President's "beyond containment" series of speeches, for a panel on "East-West-South Relations into the 1990s: Chaos, Conflict, Containment, or Cooperation?" Put on your thinking cap to grasp this nonauthoritarian world environment envisioned by the contributing author. The thoughts presented herein unlock the mystery of the world

-129-

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On Disarmament: The Role of Conventional Arms Control in National Security Strategy
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Title Page iii
  • Contents vii
  • Figures, Maps, and Tables ix
  • Foreword xi
  • 1- Background 1
  • Notes 15
  • 2- Objectives 19
  • Notes 37
  • 3- Procedures 39
  • From Issues to Policies: the Nato High Level Task Force 47
  • From Issues to Policies: the Nato High Level Task Force 50
  • 4- Issues 53
  • Notes 69
  • 5- Definitional Disarmament 71
  • Notes 76
  • 6- Current Cfe Negotiations 79
  • Notes 106
  • 7- Verification 109
  • 8- Current Csbm Negotiations 121
  • Notes 128
  • 9- Future Environment 129
  • Conclusion 138
  • Conclusion 139
  • 10- Alternative Defenses 143
  • Assessing Proposals for Deep Reductions And Defensive Restructuring Following Cfe 154
  • Assessing Proposals for Deep Reductions And Defensive Restructuring Following Cfe 164
  • 11- Risks, Results, and Reflections 167
  • Notes 182
  • Appendix A: Mandate for Negotiation On Conventional Armed Forces in Europe 183
  • Appendix B: Nato Chapter One 189
  • Appendix C: Nato Chapter Two 193
  • Appendix D: Nato Chapter Three 197
  • Appendix E: Western Csbm Proposal 205
  • Glossary 213
  • Bibliography 217
  • Index 223
  • About the Editors and Contributors 227
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