Forecasting Business Conditions

By Charles O. Hardy; Garfield V. Cox | Go to book overview

CHAPTER XII
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND PRICES

When we take up the subject of the relationship between agriculture and business conditions we are plunged at once into an atmosphere of speculative reasoning and of controversy. Hardly any aspect of our problem has received less adequate study, yet in no field do we find writers expressing themselves with more definite assurance.

Theories of the relationship of agriculture to the business cycle are of two types--those which emphasize the importance of the physical volume of production, and those which deal with the relationship between the value of the crops and the prosperity cycle. Though in some cases theories of both types are held by the same students, the assumptions on which they rest are quite different.


CROP PRODUCTION

The tradition that business prosperity is closely dependent upon the size of the principal crops has received the support of students who represent the most widely divergent points of view and utilize totally different methods of proof. W. S. Jevons' early attempt at the establishment of a relationship between sunspots, crops and business conditions is well known. Professor H. L. Moore has announced

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