power of organizations is increasingly coming from information. Proportionally, the value of such important factors as labor, capital, and material resources is decreasing. These factors will still be valuable, but they are increasingly expensive and are in growing shortage. The creative use of labor, capital, and raw materials will be aimed at lowering their costs and "stretching" their supplies ( Hampton 1994).
Traditional forms of permanent employment will, more and more, be replaced by skilled contractors and part-time workers. Independent contractors will be increasingly used by organizations to solve particular problems and to provide components and services. People will receive their fees (but not wages) for the accomplishment of tasks, not for spending time inside the premises of formal organizations.
Overall, then, (1) such important functions of formal organization as controls will be less and less significant as skilled and highly professional people in the majority of cases will be able to manage themselves, and they will operate on an independent, contractual basis; (2) as a result of that, and of growing use of computers for automation of reporting, investigating, coordinating, and controlling tasks, middle management, as one of the key parts of formal organization, will be in less and less demand.
Organizations will still need to evaluate performance, but this function will be shifting more and more toward results and away from activities.
The decline of the entire bureaucratic model is another important trend affecting formal organizations. Even large organizations will no longer be able to follow this model. They will be shifting more and more toward the open model described previously, encouraging small teams with the highest level of both motivation and productivity, as well as cross-disciplinary skills; autonomous units (such as internal profit centers) will have both responsibility and authority to handle different problems. Formal organizations will also be challenged to recognize openly the importance and role of informal organizational systems. All this means a flattening of hierarchical structure, or an elimination of it completely. In other words, it means the decline of formal organization itself.
These projections are not just bold speculations. Big corporations, which are symbols of formal organizations, already feel this pressure. In one recent study of career preferences, just 1 percent of the 1,000 adult respondents said they would readily choose to be corporate managers. More and more often, top business school graduates prefer to start businesses of their own rather than to join big corporations. Typically, their arguments are that the best bureaucrats, not the best performers, are more likely to get ahead; it is too easy to get pigeonholed or stuck in a dead-end job with no way out; it takes too long to get enough responsibility, authority, and rewards; there is not enough flexibility about where and when you work; top managers say they want risk takers, but they do not. Increasing numbers of students at top business schools want a career that involves a high level of social responsibility, such as running a successful small business and doing good works part-time, such as teaching in a school for the blind ( Labich 1995).
This trend represents new opportunities for organizations inside the public sector. It is unrealistic to project that government will abandon the closed model. But it is quite possible that recent innovations in government -- less bureaucracy and more responsibility, more customer orientation and less administrative control over operations of public sector organizations -- will clear the way for the people who come not just to earn their living but to serve public needs, and will bring a new paradigm to the development of public sector organizations.
PAVEL MAKEYENKO, MARC HOLZER, AND
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