CONDITIONS AND PROSPECTS FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH
In general terms, by the end of 1952 mainland China's productive capacity was reactivated and its institutional framework transformed to such an extent that the regime considered the time ripe for launching an ambitious and comprehensive program of economic development. However, the announcement of a Five Year Plan for China was not preceded by a major public debate on issues, methods, and problems of industrialization such as occurred in Russia in the 1920's.1 It would seem that Chinese Communist thinking and the policy which has emerged are almost completely dominated by the Stalinist model of economic development, with Preobrazhenski's and Bukharin's absent from the scene.
Proceeding on this basis, the regime envisages a development focused on the rapid expansion of producers' goods and defense industries, to be accompanied by a more modest rate of growth in the manufacture of textiles needed for barter with the countryside. Agriculture is to be developed primarily through better organization rather than capital investment; specifically this is to be based upon creation of capital by underemployed labor in mass water conservancy and other labor-intensive projects. Finally, the process of industrialization is to be financed partly through net resource transfers out of agriculture to be assured by collectivization of the peasantry gradually and in such a way as not to disrupt output drastically or damage farm capital. Chinese Communist leaders would like to avoid the costly Soviet onesweep collectivization experience.
The financing of industrialization through net resource transfers out of agriculture has, of course, been a feature of economic develop-